A large area of weak low pressure will move up northeastward into New England tonight as its associated front lingers back across our region tonight through Saturday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening (Friday), although the heaviest dynamics will pass to by to our west and north.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Fri 10pm update: The thunderstorms went with the dynamics Friday evening and remained west and north of Philadelphia. With the near range forecast so far off, it suggests that the models, especially the GFS, may not be handling the stalling front very well this weekend.  The forecast below for Saturday was based mostly on the NAM and it appears to be on track for mostly dry conditions before 3 pm Saturday. [/su_note]

On Saturday, the lingering frontal boundary remains through Pennsylvania and into West Virginia. This will allow low pressure to develop along the frontal boundary in Maryland as it sags to our south later on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Saturday may have some brief scattered showers in the mid-morning, but much of the day before 3 PM will dry. With a mix of clouds and some sunshine, high temperatures may reach 86.  It will be humid.

With the low developing on the front to our southwest, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3 PM into Saturday evening.

The showers may linger into early Sunday morning, but as the low pressure moves off the Delaware coast, drier air should move in during the day on Sunday, according to the NAM.  However,  the GFS maintains a chance of showers throughout the day on Sunday.  I’ve been mislead by the NAM on recent past weekends, but we’ll see what happens.  Sunday may remain mostly cloudy with some brightening skies later in the day.  Highs near 81 with lower humidity

I’ll likely update again late Saturday.