As mentioned, no big snowstorm for Saturday, but a clipper disturbance (an eddy current or area of vorticity) moving down from Canada in the northwest flow will bring the chance of light snow or snow showers to our area during the day on Saturday.

The GFS has a QPF of 0.14 while the NAM is lower at 0.06 inches water, a difference of a factor greater than two.  Those are big differences with small amounts- translating because of the extreme cold to a coating – 2 inches with a snow-water ratio extremely high at greater than 1:15.

That said, forecasting precipitation with clipper disturbances, especially when there are big differences between the GFS and NAM,  is tricky.   So, as usual, we’ll really have to wait until Friday evening to have an accurate handle.

Thurs noon update – QPF values have further decreased. Looking more like snow showers or a dusting of snow.

Thurs 6 PM update- QPF values are back to the levels from last night  0.15 GFS and 0.06 NAM.   Taking an average, we would have 1.5 inches of snow.   Still too early to tell for sure.