Ok, I said I was done with the updates, but here’s another.
The latest NAM data shows a QPF of over 1 inch water from 7AM this morning through a bit after 10 PM this evening. With temperatures so low in all levels of the atmosphere, expect a high snow-water ratio.
So whatever accumulation you had this morning, add about 15 or so inches to it. That should bring it to about 25-30 inches in the PHL area. Areas to the north, west and central NJ may get more than 30.
The heaviest snow will be between now and 1 or 2 PM.
10:45 AM – The latest GFS has 0.70 inches water falling as snow between 7 AM and midnight.
Ha. I was hoping you wouldn’t be able to resist an update. My question is: looking at the current radar, do you really believe so much additional QPF is possible? I don’t have access to all the modeling and water vapor imagery you do, but it just seems hard to believe to me. Curious what you think.
I have learned never to try to outguess the models. That said, yes, I think we’ll likely get as much as predicted. (The 1 inch QPF started at 7 AM.) Remember precipitation is a dynamic thing. Current radar doesn’t tell the whole story. There is a moisture plume that will be brought in and lifted to create snow. We haven’t even gotten to the “wrap around” part of the storm where the low spins in moisture from the north and then northwest as the low moves past us.
Glenn – I too was hoping for additional updates! Many of my friends follow your updates closely and are appreciative of the forecasts you provide. We all find them to be instructive and they have deepened our understanding of significant weather events and provide us with a different perspective than the those provided my news outlets. Thank you for all the time and effort you put into making these available!
Thanks, Stan! I love doing this stuff and it means a lot that people enjoy hearing my perspective.
I’ve thought about it…I am just trying to accurately relay what the models show, and to point out when they seem to be in agreement and when they’re not.