Happy New Year!

We finished 2015 with a record-breaking average temperature for December.  No secret here…it was warm!

Winter 2016 is looking colder at the start and the trajectory of the flow from the strong El Ninio is changing, with the moisture from the Pacific entering  further south along California instead of Washington state.  This trajectory usually means more interaction over the southern states and eventually here in the Northeast.

The medium range models have been trending colder than forecast just a few days ago.  This means that later this weekend and early next week, we’ll have much colder than average temperatures, something that hasn’t occurred since November.  A previously forecast warmup that had been expected the end of next week doesn’t appear to be as warm.

Currently, the interaction of the broad, cold air upper air trough and the southern stream moisture is expected to occur over the Atlantic, leaving our area sunny and cold.

But this jet configuration is a recipe for storm formation.   With the new upper air pattern emerging just now, the amount of cold weather and storm development is in flux and forecasts more than 5 days away are expected to be highly changeable.    Expect a more active pattern of weather here after next Wednesday.