As mentioned this morning, Matthew does not appear to pose a threat to the mid Atlantic area in the near term.
The trend for Florida is more ominous. The latest GFS and Navy NAVGEM model, along with specific short range hurricane models, now have the storm moving up into Florida instead of staying off the coast. This is a serious situation. Please check the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this storm.
Last night’s models completely changed the long range forecast path of Hurricane Matthew. The GFS now has Matthew completely blocked from leaving the coastal areas of Florida. It has the hurricane lingering and circling back onto the coast of Florida with no movement up the coast of the SE US.
Not sure if this is modeling error, or a new trend. If real, this could mean serious problems for areas of Florida.
For us, it looks like the hurricane will not be a consideration for the coming weekend, although some moisture may be tapped to increase rainfall with a frontal passage late Saturday.