It doesn’t take much climate science background to identify that this years’s current weather pattern is very different than the last two years.

While past winters were possibly affected by the diminished solar cycle peak and the random blocking patterns that set up for unknown reasons, one recognized climate influencer is the El Ninio Pacific Ocean  temperature cycle.  With current Paciific Ocean water temperatures at an extreme peak, the El Ninio will over-ride any other recognized patterns or climate “oscillations” that otherwise affect our climate.

The official NOAA Climate Center has predicted a warmer and wetter winter for our area this winter, based on the El Ninio, and that sounds righ to to to me.  Expect periods of very warm weather (the upcoming weekend a good example), but there will still be periods of cold.   (Hey, it’s winter.).    Expect mostly big rain storms, but a big snow storm could still be possible.

Right now, it appears that the warm pattern stays with us through the middle of December.  Current models suggest that the more recognizable winter weather cold temperatures arrive here about December 17th.