WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx

Saturday Forecast Update

Posted Saturday 12/28/24 @ 10:02 AM — The rain moved in and will remain with us for much of the day. Current RAP model analysis shows minor areas of upward vertical motion that will move in our direction during the day and night time hours—

RAP model analysis of vertical motion (Omega) shows areas of upward motion (yellow L) that will move towards us with additional periods of rain. The rain moves in the direction of the green contour arrows. (Click on image for a larger view.)

For Sunday, a system is developing along an inflection area of the jet stream along the Gulf Coast. This will move towards us bringing rain Sunday night into early Monday

Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) with superimposed MRMS RADAR. Developing Low pressure in Texas will move towards us and arrive late Sunday into Monday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The GFS is still showing a pause in the rain for Sunday afternoon and even some sun in Philadelphia and areas eastward, but the latest NAM-NEST model shows some lingering light drizzle and sprinkles in the city during the game. I’m leaning towards the more optimistic GFS forecast at this time for the Eagles game. Heavy rain expected Sunday evening and night beginning about 7-8 PM from west to east.


Previously Posted Fri @ 11:03 PM — —Two low pressure systems will affect our weather this weekend. The first will last through much of Saturday. Luckily, the second system, as forecast with prior updates Thursday and Friday, will remain to our west for the afternoon on Sunday. The Eagles game should be mostly dry with even some breaks of sun.

Rain begins here around midnight (Friday).

GFS forecast for 1 PM Saturday. Rain for much of the area. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Saturday Forecast

Rain for much of the day, tapering off towards evening, except continuing in South Jersey.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 48º Philadelphia, PA 51º
Average uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.4º

Sunday Forecast

Clouds lift for some bright spots and even some sun (especially in NJ) Rain moves in about 6 PM and continues heavy at times through the night. Increasingly windy and gusty during the afternoon and night time hours.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 62º Philadelphia, PA 64º
Slightly above average uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 2º

GFS forecast for Sunday 7 PM. Rain moves in from the west (Click on image for a larger view.)

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