Updated Oct 2 – Change in Fall/Winter precipitation outlook.

I always start my climate forecasts with a reiteration that climate prediction is very different than weather forecasting despite the appearance that they are similar. It’s an inexact science.

That said, there is an overwhelming allure among professional and amateur forecasters to attempt to predict trends in weather based on current weather patterns. So here goes.

It appears that we are experiencing a pattern change from the cold and wet pattern we had over the past year. We have just passed the second peak of the current solar cycle. This would signal a warm period for us, but the recent solar cycle expectedly peaked at a low level.

Nonetheless, we are beginning to see a pattern reminiscent of our last solar peak– increasingly milder temperatures.

In September, I thought we might have drier conditions, but I now feel that precipitation may be near average or above average.

So my climate forecast for this fall and early winter is for<b> warmer, above average temperatures. </b> Amounts of rain or snow near or above average. It doesn’t mean we’ll not see rain or snow or cold periods, but expect temperatures to average above seasonal norms.