Much uncertainty about the intensity and timing of a coastal storm expected to develop and move up the coast, affecting our area sometime early Saturday into Sunday.  Several models have backed away from a super storm that had been forecast by the European Model (ECMWF) and Canadian (CMC) models and to some extent the GFS.

The latest model forecasts suggest that the northern stream and southern stream low pressure systems won’t phase because the northern stream disturbance will arrive too late.  However, the ECMWF still has a considerable storm forming and affecting us Saturday into Sunday.

The latest GFS moves the low pressure through faster and keeps the two storms separate. In fact the lack of phasing with the GFS keeps the southern stream coastal storm moving fast and robbing it of some punch.

It’s still way too early to know which way things will go, but the trend is towards a rainy but otherwise unremarkable Saturday.

I’ve been following this for several days and I’ll update if things change.