With this mornings models both having a QPF of 0.46 inches water, it’s time to put my own bias of a fizzler to rest and predict the snow based on the model QPF.

The GFS model has some heavier snow occurring early, with about two inches or so at daybreak Tuesday,  then light snow for the rest of the day. The NAM has been consistent with very light accumulation at daybreak Tuesday and  then 4-5 inches occurring afternoon and and evening.

Impossible to tell which, if any,  of these models is correct.  As I’ve said, these secondary lows can’t be accurately modeled in advance regarding moisture distribution on a three dimensional level.

If we go by QPF, 4-6 inches is possible by late Tuesday evening.  Impossible to say where the heaviest amounts may setup.    There’s still my suspicion, that the snow accumulation could be significantly less.  A low confidence forecast.

It’s 1pm and there’s breaks of sun. Not captured by any model forecast. Doesn’t bode well for the rest of the forecast.