It’s still winter and as mentioned on my weekend post, an interesting and messy commute with some possible snow shaping up for Friday morning.

After a warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front moves through and stalls to our south late Wednesday.

An area of low pressure moves along this stalled front Friday morning, before daybreak and into Friday morning  The trend has been for temperatures to be colder and current QPF values are over 0.30 inches water.  So some snow is looking likely for early Friday morning, possibly a few inches!

The extended range forecasts have shown greater than usual variability over the past week, so it’s too early to have confidence in this forecast.   Stay tuned.

One more thing….also mentioned over a week ago was the possibility of a significant snowstorm around March 13th.  That possibility faded but has re-emerged as a potential snowstorm on Sunday March 12th.  Stay tuned.

Sunday Update: Temperatures have been below the highs forecast.  Sunday’s GFS model has high temperatures today barely reaching the freezing point of 32.

The extended GFS is forecasting a messy early morning commute on Friday – mixed precipitation expected before daybreak, changing to rain.  This needs to be watched, as there are large differences and inconsistencies in the various extended model forecasts.

A sharp dip in the jet stream over the eastern US will allow cold air to move in for the weekend.  Indeed, the temperatures will be cold even by January standards.

For Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies, although some instability cloudiness is likely late morning and early afternoon.  It will be windy with highs only getting to 35.

For Sunday, the winds calm down, and sunny skies are expected for much of the daytime.  Some cloudiness moves in late afternoon as the upper wind flow becomes southwesterly.  Highs about 38.

Outlook for the coming weeks: Expect some significant warming midweek, followed by another cold outbreak.   The long-range models show several more outbreaks of cold weather during the next two-three weeks, with warm ups in-between.  The snowstorm mentioned in last weekend’s post for the middle of March has disappeared from the models, but with such seesaws in temperatures, some interesting weather is likely in store.