The big focus of this impending snow has been on the QPF and the duration of the precipitation.

One thing that seems to have escaped higher scrutiny are the warm temperatures.  Looking at the current short range GFS LAMPS forecast, it has surface temperatures well above freezing past the peak precipitation time.

While the current models show the upper atmosphere cooling down to support snow by about 4-5 AM the big unanswered question, will it be cold enough for the snow to accumulate to the levels being forecast?

Reviewing the current short range MOS and LAMPS, I’m beginning to think that the temperatures may not drop soon enough for as much accumulation to occur as being forecast.

So what is being forecast as a major snowstorm of 6-8 inches may actually only accumulate 3-4 inches if the cold surface temperatures arrive too late in the morning.   (In that case, ice under the snow. will be a bigger issue with this storm.)

I wanted to share this concern that the current forecast may not be correct.  Indeed, that’s why many of you read this blog. 

The next NAM data will be available within the hour.  I’ll update then.