Tonight will be a good test of the weather models.  Both the GFS and the NAM are showing the precipitation associated with an artic front to dissipate before reaching Philadelphia.  The GFS cranks out a snow flurry around daybreak with a QPF of 0.01 inches water.

On Sunday, another weather forecasting dilemma presents itself as a stalled front in our area will allow disturbances to develop and move along the front.  It’s impossible to know where the front will end up, but recent similar scenarios have the front stalling further south than model predictions.  As a result, light snow is seeming more possible than light rain or sleet in PHL.   A stronger low pressure system may develop along this front Monday, bringing snow.   Amounts not predictable at this time.   Stay tuned.

Both the GFS and NAM models show some light snow tonight. A coating to about an inch or maybe two, especially north of Philadelphia.

Unlike the “blizzard”, this time the GFS has more QPF than the NAM, which suggests a more likely scenario.

I’m keeping an eye on the Sunday evening time frame. We are flying back to PHL during this period and I’m hoping the expected snow holds off until later in the evening Sunday. There’s uncertainty about the degree of development in this upcoming storm, but there could be several inches by Monday morning.