I’ve been looking at the weather for years. I can’t remember a previous period of time where the major models have been so inconsistent with forecasts. The major models, while often showing some disagreement with various features, seem to be in less agreement over the past month or so.
More importantly, the models themselves seem to change with their own forecasts from day to day. Two examples this week- based on the forecast from the weekend, Tuesday was expected to be mild, but it wasn’t until Monday that it became apparent that temps would be near 60. Thursday was supposed to be much colder at the start, now not so until later in the day. What looked like snow is now a rain forecast.
Basically, this season, you can’t count on the models for a specific scenario beyond 2, maybe 3 days in advance.
I’m not sure why this is the case. I have been reading that temperatures in the Arctic circle are very mild this year, with the cold pools of air being further south, in Siberia for example. Not the norm. I suspect this is throwing off the models quite a bit.
Either way, weather forecasting so far this cold season has been more of a challenge than usual.