Those of you following the past days forecast details would notice that the model forecast accuracy has not been at its best– the position and movement of the warm front has been difficult to accurately predict.

It appears that the warm front has finally moved past our area Friday morning (winds have shifted to the southwest).   There’s the possibility of some thinning cloudiness during the afternoon and maybe some breaks of sunshine.

In fact, the “maybe some breaks of sunshine” may be the forecast challenge for this weekend.

This weekend, we will be in a south to southwesterly flow of very moist and somewhat unstable air.  The models are predicting heavy rain for Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  Maybe you can hang your hat on this, maybe you can’t.

But if we assume that late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning will be a definite rain time frame, the rest of the weekend weather forecast is a bit more challenging.   Forecast uncertainty is high this weekend regarding details.

For Saturday, we’ll start with some clouds, maybe some breaks of sunshine, warm and humid.  High 84.  Showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop mid to late Saturday afternoon into the evening.  Rain may be heavy.

Sunday starts with lingering rain and showers, then it ends.  Thinning clouds possible in the afternoon and maybe some breaks of sunshine in the later afternoon.    High 83.

I’ll try to fine tune this during the weekend.