Sunday Update: Temperatures have been below the highs forecast.  Sunday’s GFS model has high temperatures today barely reaching the freezing point of 32.

The extended GFS is forecasting a messy early morning commute on Friday – mixed precipitation expected before daybreak, changing to rain.  This needs to be watched, as there are large differences and inconsistencies in the various extended model forecasts.

A sharp dip in the jet stream over the eastern US will allow cold air to move in for the weekend.  Indeed, the temperatures will be cold even by January standards.

For Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies, although some instability cloudiness is likely late morning and early afternoon.  It will be windy with highs only getting to 35.

For Sunday, the winds calm down, and sunny skies are expected for much of the daytime.  Some cloudiness moves in late afternoon as the upper wind flow becomes southwesterly.  Highs about 38.

Outlook for the coming weeks: Expect some significant warming midweek, followed by another cold outbreak.   The long-range models show several more outbreaks of cold weather during the next two-three weeks, with warm ups in-between.  The snowstorm mentioned in last weekend’s post for the middle of March has disappeared from the models, but with such seesaws in temperatures, some interesting weather is likely in store.