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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
   

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  • Glenn F Schreiber
    aka "theweatherguy"

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    Sun, 02 Feb 2014

    Philly Winter Weather Update - Sun 10 PM
    Latest NAM model has increased QPF to over an inch. Still maintains marginal temps for snow and a bit warm in the upper atmosphere.

    It would not surprise me if the storm is more of a messy mix of snow, sleet and rain during the time of heaviest precipitation in the morning. So the bottom line-- the predicted high snow total for this storm is not that certain. Could be a whopper in snow totals or could be a bust.

    posted: Feb 02 2014 at 10:03 pm

    [/weather/feb14] permanent link

    Philly Winter Weather Update - Sun 6 PM
    Low pressure will move up along a stalled frontal boundary to our south with precipitation starting about 3AM Monday and continuing through early afternoon on Monday.

    The models continue to crank out significant amounts of water falling tomorrow morning. QPF values are now in the 0.80 inch range. The big question in my mind- will the temperatures really support snow for our area?? The models keep the critical temperatures at or below freezing in the lower 10,000 feet of the atmosphere. HOWEVER, 500-1000 mb thickness levels, which reflect the coldness and density of the upper levels of the atmosphere are predicted to be significantly warmer than those that usually support snow in our area. Thickness levels are predicted to fall during the daytime, but during the time of maximum precipitation, that parameter just seems a bit warm to me.

    I'm sure the NWS knows why it's predicting snow, but it would not surprise me if the storm has more of a messy mix of sleet and rain during the time of heaviest precipitation. So the bottom line-- the predicted snow total for this storm is not that clear-cut this time around.

    posted: Feb 02 2014 at 6:30 pm

    [/weather/feb14] permanent link

    Philly Winter Weather Update - Sun 6 PM
    Low pressure will move up along a stalled frontal boundary to our south with precipitation starting about 3AM Monday and continuing through early afternoon on Monday.

    The models continue to crank out significant amounts of water falling tomorrow morning. QPF values are now in the 0.80 inch range. The big question in my mind- will the temperatures really support snow for our area?? The models keep the critical temperatures at or below freezing in the lower 10,000 feet of the atmosphere. HOWEVER, 500-1000 mb thickness levels, which reflect the coldness and density of the upper levels of the atmosphere are predicted to be significantly warmer than those that usually support snow in our area. Thickness levels are predicted to fall during the daytime, but during the time of maximum precipitation, that parameter just seems a bit warm to me.

    I'm sure the NWS knows why it's predicting snow, but it would not surprise me if the storm has more of a messy mix of sleet and rain during the time of heaviest precipitation. So the bottom line-- this is storm and the predicted snow totals are not that clear-cut this time around.

    posted: Feb 02 2014 at 6:27 pm

    [/weather/feb14] permanent link

    Philly Winter Weather Update - Sun 8 AM
    Low pressure will move up along a stalled frontal boundary to our south with precipitation starting about 3AM Monday and continuing until about noon or so.

    The NAM has consistently produced about 0.60-0.70 inches water QPF for the event with the GFS somewhat lower. The big question mark will be the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere and whether this falls as snow or a mix. The NAM brings temperatures under 10,000 feet to near or below freezing but temperatures in the upper atmosphere remain marginally too warm for snow at PHL. (We have had snow fall recently with this thermal profile, but often it gets mixed with rain or sleet.)

    Temperatures in the warm upper atmosphere are expected to fall as the morning continues, so a turn-over to snow is expected, sometime in the mid-morning. Surface temperatures at the freezing level of 32 and marginal temperatures in the upper atmosphere for snow formation for much of the storm will result in very wet snow possibly mixed with sleet, heavy and quite different than recent storms.

    Roadways, already covered with salt and near-freezing temperatures will result in low slushy, messy accumulations. Grassy surfaces more likely to pickup higher accumulations. Too many factors to guess the exact accumulation, but 4 inches on grassy surfaces possible with less on roadways. As always, colder areas to the immediate north and west of PHL will have greater accumulations. Areas far northwest will be colder, but will miss the main slug of precipitation.

    posted: Feb 02 2014 at 8:08 am

    [/weather/feb14] permanent link



    Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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