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Forecast Review

Sun 9:15 AM —Forecast Review — With the exception of the light showers lasting into the night and very early morning hours, the model forecasts did remarkably well in predicting the precipitation amounts and the banding locations. Here’s the latest MRMS totals:

Sunday’s Eagle’s Forecast & Thursday’s Possible Storm

Posted Sunday 01/11/26 @ 9:18 AM — Sunny skies with a few periods of cloudiness passing through. The RRFS has continued to forecast wind gusts in a lower range for much of the day, BUT there’s a secondary area of clouds and even a few light widely scattered sprinkles or snow flurries that moves through about 4-5 PM with a secondary cold front.

The latest RRFS does show wind gusts briefly peaking near 35-40 mph at 4-5 PM with this secondary cold front but they subside from that high level by the fourth quarter.

The global, ensemble and AI models continue to forecast a coastal low to form near us on Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above freezing at the start, so wet snow will have trouble accumulating. Total accumulation water equivalent looks to be between 0.15 and .30 inches. Possibly 1-2 inches of snow possible at best. The trend has been for this storm to form at or north of our latitude, having us miss much of the precip.

One More Thing… Next Week

Posted Saturday 01/10/26 @ 11:51 AM — As mentioned over previous days, the forecast configuration of the jet stream for next Thursday through Saturday lends itself to coastal storm development and a snow storm for our area.

While there has been nothing showing on the models through yesterday, last night’s models and especially this morning’s ECMWF-AI and new AIGFS shows a coastal storm for Thursday. Thermal profiles appear to be marginal, meaning wet snow or sleet changing to snow.

It’s way to early to hang your hat on this possibility. But you heard it here first. (And isn’t that why you read this blog?)

Weekend Forecast Update

Posted Saturday 01/10/26 @ 11:08 AM — Today’s forecast remains on track with these changes:

• Heavy rain band is forecast to be somewhat closer to Philadelphia.
• Rain ends between 9 PM to 11 PM near the city and westward.
  
  

Total Rainfall—

Regarding Sunday, and more specifically the Eagles game at 4:30 PM, the latest RRFS continues with wind gusts in the 26 mph range, not the 40+ mph range I heard on the radio.

Originally Posted Fri 5:41 PM —Low pressure near the Great Lakes will spawn a secondary low near our area Saturday afternoon resulting in heavy rain during the day, ending after midnight Sunday.

Colder air moves in on Sunday although, not as frigid as past weeks.

Saturday Forecast

Cloudy early. Lowering and thickening clouds late morning with rain heavy at times. Increasingly windy but remaining below 20 mph.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 44º Philadelphia, PA 47º
Higher than Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 2.2º