#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx
The model forecasts were having issues with today’s forecast over several days prior with decreasing amounts of rainfall and changes in expected cloud cover. (Just a few days ago, some moderate to heavy rain had been forecast today.)
Even last night’s RRFS had some heavy cells moving through this evening. That is no longer forecast by the RRFS but still forecast by the Canadian AI model.
The current forecast trend has been for less precipitation and more widely scattered bands of showers through midnight. Confidence remains lower than normal.
Colder air for Monday! Incredibly, the GFS shows some snow showers not far to our north!
Posted Saturday 11/08/25 @ 8:14 PM — Sunday starts cloudy, but as posted yesterday, it would not surprise me if we see some bright skies and even some sun in some locations on Sunday afternoon following the passage of the warm front.
The warm front will bring widely scattered showers late morning but the models have really backed off on the heavier rain during the daytime with this warm front.
The cold front moves through between 8 PM and 11 PM. Very high vertical shear with low CAPE may make for some heavy, fast moving rain storms with localized gusty winds. There may be some thunder as well.
RRFS forecast 9 PM – 10PM
Many models maintain unimpressive rainfall totals, but the ECMWF-AI and the latest RRFS show about 1/2″ of rain in several bands across the region. The fast moving pockets of rain will limit totals, but if you’re under a heavy cell, the rainfall could be quite impressive.
Unsettled and colder weather for Monday.
Previously Posted Fri @ 9:05 PM — —There have been some changes in the weekend forecast subsequent to my posting my preview forecast earlier.
A cold front moves through this evening with showers that clear out around daybreak Saturday. These showers move in to northwestern sections about 10 PM and into the city about 11- 11:30 PM. The latest models crank out about 0.20″ of rain, possibly more in western suburbs.
After a very nice day on Saturday, (windy in the morning) a warm front in the early afternoon will be followed by another very potent cold front moves through on Sunday evening with showers and maybe some low level thunder Sunday afternoon. Earlier model runs suggested heavier rainfall, but the trend is for less rainfall (0.25″) and for a secondary low to form after the front is off the coast. There’s still some uncertainty regarding this.
As mentioned over the past several postings, a winter-like dip in the jet flow caused by cold air plunging southward will make take us briefly into winter later Monday and Tuesday.
Saturday Forecast
Following some early clouds, sunshine for much of the day. Quite windy in the morning with winds subsiding during the afternoon.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 65º Philadelphia, PA 67º
Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.4º
Sunday Forecast
Cloudy with showers and possibly some thunder around 1 PM, then milder with another batch of showers in the late afternoon and evening. It would not surprise me if we see some breaks of sunshine at times in the afternoon after the warm front and before the cold front.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 63º Philadelphia, PA 65º
Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.6º