Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday

Posted Thursday 03/05/26 @ 5:20 PM — Heavy fog early this evening around much of the Philadelphia area will dissipate as an area of heavier showers moves through between 9 PM and 1 AM tonight. Dark, low clouds expected for Friday. The stationary front will move little this evening.

Current Water Vapor—

Water Vapor with radar and RAP model MSL pressure. Rain later this evening. Heaviest rain will move to our north later this evening. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Additional Notes

Posted Wednesday 03/04/26 @ 7:48 PM — There was some talk that we’d see the 70s over this weekend. I don’t see that in any model. In fact the weekend looks to be in the upper 50s Saturday to maybe the upper 60s on Sunday. The statistical models show large standard deviations indicating very low confidence in the forecast for temperatures on Sunday. (66º ± 6º )

The last time we had this large standard deviation was last weekend and the range was 53º ± 7º; we hit 61º.

The earliest I see hitting or exceeding 70º is Tuesday.

Thursday Forecast

Posted Wednesday 03/04/26 @ 5:02 PM — We continue to be along a stalled west-east frontal boundary where impulses move through bringing increased likelihood of rain. The next impulse will move in about 4 AM Thursday morning—

12z ECMWF-AI forecast for early Thursday morning about 4 AM (Click on image for a larger view.)

There should be a break in the action Thursday afternoon.

Another impulse moves through late Thursday night into Friday morning. Both Thursday and Friday afternoons may be relatively rain-free. It’s also looking like Saturday will have diminished chances for rain.

18z ECMWF-AI forecast for Late Thursday night. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The impulse that approaches on Saturday appears to move north of our area as the stalled frontal boundary finally moves northward. Chances for rain diminish for the weekend.

Wednesday-Thursday Outlook

Posted Tuesday 03/03/26 @ 5:37 PM — Another area of rain will move in about 7 PM this evening—

Radar Image at 3 PM with RAP model 700 mb wind streams. (Click on image for a larger view.)

For Wednesday, it had been hoped that the rain over night would end during the morning, with even some sunshine in the afternoon. The latest RRFS shows rain showers lingering with even a spotty shower possible during the mid-afternoon. But the sun may be seen in northern sections of Montco and Bucks counties; the rest of us will have cloudy skies.

Yet another disturbance moves in later Wednesday night into much of Thursday with more clouds and rain—

WV image about 3:15 PM with another area of rain expected to form in the white boxed area and affect our area on Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

While additional areas of rain are expected, especially on Saturday night Sunday, the trend will be for much warmer temperatures as an upper air ridge develops over the eastern half of the US.

Highly amplified jet flow (300 mb winds) with trough in the Southwest and a amplified ridge in the East on Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Tuesday – Quick Transition to Rain

Posted Monday 03/02/26 @ 7:11 PM — Plenty of moisture is poised to move up into our area Tuesday through early Wednesday. Cold air in place will allow this moisture to begin as light snow about 4-5 AM but will mix and transition to rain between 8 AM- 10 AM in most of the Philadelphia area and surrounding counties—

Water Vapor image Monday evening with superimposed RAP model mean sea level pressure (black isobars) and potential vorticity – GFS (violet contours), NAM (yellow contours) along with MRMS radar image. A strong moisture flow from the west along with a disturbance taking shape in Mississippi will move over our area. ( Click on image for a larger view.)

The latest ECMWF-AI captures this in an elongated precipitation flow into our region—

Today’s 18z ECMWF-AI forecast for Wednesday morning. About a half inch of rain will fall (Click on image for a larger view.)

Temperatures will rise into the low 50s by Wednesday. About 1/2 inch of rain is expected to fall between early Tuesday and early Wednesday morning. A break in the rain is expected by early Wednesday afternoon with additional rain sometime Thursday into Friday.

The trend continues to be warmer and wetter.

Warmer and Wetter

Originally Posted Sun 8:30 PM — Once we get past this short-lived cold outbreak for Monday, the trend for the week will be warmer and wetter. Several systems are lining up to move towards us and bring rain—

Water Vapor image ~ 8 PM Sunday night with superimposed RAP model mean sea level pressure (black isobars) and potential vorticity – GFS (violet contours), NAM (yellow contours) along with MRMS radar image. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The disturbances (1 and 2 above) will move towards us giving us predominantly rain, although the first disturbance arriving on Tuesday may start as light snow and transition to sleet and rain. A coating of snow may develop in northern Montco and Bucks counties before a full transition to all rain by about noon. So while, it may snow into mid to late morning, little is expected to accumulate.

Tonights’ 00z NBM precipitation type Tuesday morning. Mostly a mix of rain and snow by 8 AM GREEN = RAIN , BLUE = SNOW, RED = FREEZING RAIN, ORANGE = SLEET (Click on image for a larger view.)

A break in the precipitation is expected Wednesday afternoon before another system brings rain, especially northern areas for Thursday.

As mentioned, the models haven’t been doing too well over recent days. (Even today, Sunday, temperatures did not drop as fast as forecast the day beforehand.) Hopefully they’ll get their act together for Tuesday’s forecast and beyond.