#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx
Friday thru Sunday Outlook
Posted Friday 02/27/26 @ 9:15 AM — Today, Friday, expect plenty of sunshine and highs 46º-49º (again a large standard deviation.) The trend is for even more widespread warmer temperatures on Saturday and highs reaching 57º-58º.
A strong cold front moves through Sunday morning. Most models keep showers associated with this front to our north and northeast, but some models have some sprinkles just grazing the city during the morning hours. Temperatures start to drop through the 30s by early afternoon with gusty winds.
Still uncertainty with the Monday through Wednesday time frame. The GFS has no snow for Monday, the ECMWF-AI has some very light snow developing. Most models have a transition to sleet freezing rain and then all rain through Tuesday into Wednesday. It does look like it all ends as all rain and perhaps a good soaking.
Good news! The first 7-10 days of March look to be much milder, but perhaps with plenty of clouds and rain.
Updates later this afternoon in my regular “Weekend Weather Forecast”.
Friday and The Weekend Outlook
Posted Thursday 02/26/26 @ 8:00 PM —Enjoy the next two days because the period from Sunday into next Wednesday suggests colder weather and an uncertain range of storminess.
For Friday, highs reach the mid to upper 40s with plenty of sunshine. For Saturday, highs reach at least 50º with some models showing highs near 57º, again with plenty of sunshine and occasional clouds.
(It should be noted that the model blend (NBM) shows a high of 50º but with an incredibly large standard deviation of ± 7º. That standard deviation is as large a spread in temperature forecasts as anything I’ve seen, suggesting that various models show very different highs. )
That same large model spread in high temperatures heralds the large uncertainty and spread in model forecasts from Sunday through next Wednesday.
A strong cold front moves through Sunday morning. Some models have rain or snow showers accompanying that front, some have them falling apart as they approach Philadelphia. Temperatures drop during the day
As for the period next Monday through Wednesday, everything from several inches of snow to heavy rain is being forecast with little model agreement. It promises to be interesting.
Thursday Forecast Update & Apple Weather App
“There is an issue with the ground clutter suppression map for the radar. Our technicians need to get out to the radar to correct it. However, a tree fell across the access road during the blizzard on Monday and thus they have been unable to access it to correct the issue. We are hoping that we will be able to get out there today.”
Posted Thursday 02/26/26 @ 8:41 AM — The GFS has joined the other models in having the precipitation move to our south. The closest any model has to having some light snow or light rain is the Canadian High Resolution (HRDPS) which is also an outlier and likely too far north with its precipitation. So mostly cloudy today.
A complicated and inconsistent forecast is unfolding for the period Sunday through Wednesday with some models showing snow, some a mix, and each with very different timing. There’s an unusual lack of agreement in this forecast period. I’m keeping an eye on it.
Finally, for iPhone users, perhaps you noticed that early this morning, the Apple Weather app was reporting “heavy snow in the next hour”. The Philadelphia area radar (KDIX) located in Fort Dix, NJ, was inoperational about a week ago and has since had bouts of strange echos, being misinterpreted as heavy precipitation (snow today) . I’ve observed this several times in recent days.
I’m sure the Mount Holly Weather Office is aware of this, but I’ve contacted them this morning.
Cancel That Snow for Philadelphia
Posted Wednesday 02/25/26 @ 4:13 PM — This morning and this afternoon’s early models overwhelmingly show the precipitation with Thursday’s low pressure system staying to our south, with little to any snow in our neck of the woods.
The NBM mean shows a scattered coating of snow, but the median shows zero. The NAM shows minimal near Philadelphia. The HRRR shows zero.
This morning’s GFS (posted earlier, below) still showed some snow accumulation. This afternoon’s GFS keeps the snow just south of the and outside the immediate Philadelphia area (too warm for snow) —
With this latest GFS, it remains an outlier, with minimal support from only the Canadian HRDPS. Many models show the precipitation (as rain) much further south.
Thursday Snow Outlook
Posted Wednesday 02/25/26 @ 9:48 AM — The most recent model runs continue with the GFS still predicting snow and the ECMWF AI having moved a bit north from its southern track. The regular ECMWF is still far south, only affecting Cape May with some rain.
So, like last week, the GFS has some snow for us, the ECMWF doesn’t. Since the time horizon is only about 40 hours, we can’t ignore the lack of consensus. Only the next model runs with clarify this.
Here’s the GFS worst case scenario for snow here—
The above is likely too high by about 1 inch. We’ll need some additional model runs to clarify. Updates later.
Wednesday-Thursday Outlook
Posted Tuesday 02/24/26 @ 5:20 PM — There is a lack of model consensus in the forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday. Most models have no snow to a dusting of snow either before daybreak Wednesday or into the morning. Some show as much as an inch of snow. It’s not clear which is correct, but the latest NBM median is similar to the snow forecast shown below for the RRFS. (There is a low possibility that we could see as much as an inch by late morning. Again not likely.)
Things are even more uncertain as we get to the system expected to affect our area later Thursday. The European models (ECMWF-AI ECMWF) now show the low moving well to our south, missing us.
The latest GFS maintains the track of yesterday’s AI models with what appears to be light to moderate snow for us. (The NBM is showing little to no snowfall similar to the ECMWF.)
I’m presenting the GFS because it did so well with our recent ‘almost Blizzard’. Unfortunately, there’s too much spread in the models to be sure of a forecast at this time. Stay tuned.
Tuesday-Wednesday Outlook
Posted Tuesday 02/24/26 @ 9:45 AM — Low pressure will move to our north, and an associated weak warm front will bring the chance of very light snow to our area Wednesday morning.
Temperatures today, Tuesday, will range from 32º Blue Bell to 35º Philadelphia with sunshine and windy conditions.
For Wednesday very light snow in the morning. Cloudy much of the day, clearing late afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s.
Another stronger system moves in on Thursday. There are temperature differences between the GFS and ECMWF-AI forecasts which will affect the amount of snow (if any). Updates when things clarify.
Originally Posted Mon 8:27 PM —Another active week, weather-wise, as two systems will affect our area. The first moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some light rain or wet snow is possible with this system. A relatively minor accumulation is expected if anything at all.
Another system moves up from the central US on Thursday. We’ll be on the snow-rain boundary with this system, but mostly rain from Philadelphia and south to possibly wet snow especially to the far north—
Details in the coming days
Thank you for all the work that you put into your forecasts! It is much appreciated! For the potential system on Thursday, if we do get something, do you have any sense of the timing?
Glad you find my weather hobby-obsession useful. The GFS and AIGFS have the snow developing between 12 and 1 PM. The latest REFS is similar but shows a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain which I doubt.
You are my trusted weather bible. And I rely on you for work and reference you at the office. I know it’s a hobby but you make a different for me.
Thank you for your heartfelt appreciation of my forecasts and my approach to forecasting. Having a website to share my fascination with the weather and having access to incredible raw weather model data exceeds my wildest dreams as a kid.