Philadelphia Weather Outlook

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Temporary Slight Warm Up Next Week

Updated Thursday 02/05/26 @ 5:07 PM — Following the cold front that moves through late Friday night with a coating of snow possible, another outbreak of cold air will move in for Saturday and much of Sunday with single digit low temps and even colder wind chills. A slight warm up (warm up should be in ‘air quotes’ ) will bring temperatures back into the 30s for Monday and Tuesday. This will be due to a temporary flattening of the jet flow—

12z ECMWF-AI forecast for Saturday showing a deep dip in the jet flow due to cold high pressure moving in (Click on image for larger view.)

By next Tuesday, we have a flattening of the jet flow, allowing temperatures to reach the ‘warm 30s’. Another disturbance will likely bring about an inch of snow Tuesday night although the setup could result in an icy mix.

12z ECMWF-AI. Shows flattened jet flow with another cold front approaching for a chill down by next Thursday. (Click on image for larger view.)

Unfortunately, the AI model is showing a return to the deep freeze dip in the jet by next Thursday and Friday.

Even Less Snow

Updated Thursday 02/05/26 @ 8:54 AM — The RRFS has again followed the lead of the ECMWF-AI model: even less snow expected for Friday night

06z RRFS now shows a dusting to a coating at most for Friday night. (Click on image for larger view.)
Light Snow Friday night

Updated Wednesday 02/04/26 @ 9:59 PM — Another cold front will move through along with an Alberta Clipper Friday night. Light snow is possible with this system with most models showing a coating to as much as an inch, however most areas will see just a coating to 1/2”.

18z RRFS is forecasting on the high range with accumulations as much as an inch. Many models have as little as a coating to 1/2”. (Click on image for larger view.)

The clipper disturbance will blossom into a stronger storm well off the coast. High pressure moving in with very cold air (temps Saturday night near 2º ) and a strong pressure gradient will create wind chills well below zero later Saturday night.

Temperatures begin to moderate slightly next week, but remain still below average. Warm moist air and additional disturbances are setting up for unsettled conditions next week. Stay tuned.

A Changing Forecast

Updated Tuesday 02/03/26 @ 10:47 PM — A series of cold fronts will affect us over the next few days. First is a front that moves through tonight. As mentioned yesterday, the low pressure system and its snow will stay to our south.

Continued cold but not as brutal through Friday. Another cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning. The latest AIGFS shows a coating of snow over our area, about 1/2” at most. The ECMWF-AI shows only flurries.

Today’s 18z AIGFS shows about 1/2 inch of snowfall for Friday night into Saturday morning . (Click on image for larger view.)

Then continued extremely cold through the weekend, with wind chills below zero again.

What had been seen as a possible warm up next week, in the Monday Tuesday time frame, now appears to be less warm and more complicated. An Alberta Clipper with an associated warm front may give us a period of snow on Tuesday. Several inches are possible with this system and a return to below average temps follows.

Another Quick Update

Updated Monday 02/02/26 @ 3:52 PM — The models have returned to forecast where the Tuesday night system stays to our south, affecting South Jersey. Just some flurries from the city north and perhaps a coating to our and South Jersey.

Outlook Update

Posted Sunday 02/01/26 @ 7:07 PM —No sooner had I posted This Week’s Weather, then the latest GFS and RRFS became available. They are both showing some light snow accumulation beginning before daybreak Wednesday and ending early in the morning.

The earlier and AI models showed very little, so confidence is not high with this outlook.

18z RRFS forecast for 7AM Wednesday morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Near Normal Temperatures in View by Feb 9-11th

Originally Posted Sun 5:12 PM — The cold weather continues this week with a disturbance passing to our south early Wednesday and a cold front with a clipper type disturbance passing through around Friday.

The Wednesday system will bring some snow flurries, maybe a coating at most here. The clipper on Friday had previously looked to bring an inch or so, but the models now have the energy transferring to a low off the coast, so again, little in the way of any snow on Friday.

The ECMWF and the ECMWF-AI are showing what may be just a temporary change in the upper air flow by next Monday or Tuesday (Feb 9-10th) as the persistent cold upper level trough will be replaced by a broad upper ridge. This will bring back closer to normal temperatures in the 40s. It’s too soon if it’s just a temporary change or if it will be persistent pattern change.

Here’s the current pattern. The red 500-1000 mb thickness line is a good indication of the jet stream position and shape in winter—

AIGFS Forecast for Thursday. Continued cold with a storm moving off to our east, sparing us from another potential snow storm.

Here’s the latest ECMWF-AI forecast for next week (9th-10th) showing some upper level ridging and some more seasonable temperatures (40s) —

ECMWF-AI shows a broad ridge. Cold air is entrenched so it will take some time for temperatures to moderate. Temps in the 40s, maybe higher. (Click on image for a larger view.)
ECMWF-AI forecast temps at 1 PM Tuesday the 10th. (Click on image for a larger view.)