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Weekend Outlook- Tuesday Storm Outlook
Posted Friday 11/28/25 @ 10:08 AM — Today, Friday, will be windy and continued cold. Mostly sunny skies are expected, although some instability cloudiness is possible late afternoon in western sections of the Philadelphia adjacent counties. Highs 40-42º.
For the Eagles game— Winds 14 mph Gust 28 mph at 3:30 PM
Saturday will be less windy but still cold.
Sunday– light rain beginning late morning into the afternoon.
Tuesday: Possible snow/sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Additional information this evening in my regular Weekend Weather Forecast.
Weekend and Storm Outlook
Posted Thursday 11/26/25 @ 7:20 PM — Friday looks to be continued chilly and somewhat windy. Saturday will be less cold and less windy. Some light rain is expected by Sunday early afternoon.
Of interest is our first setup for possible frozen precipitation in far northern and western suburbs. (A pattern like this in a few weeks could result in a potential snowstorm.)
Wednesday Evening & Thanksgiving Outlook
Posted Wednesday 11/26/25 @ 10:28 PM — One thing I left out in Thursday’s forecast below— it will be mostly cloudy with just a few peeks of sun.
Posted Wednesday 11/26/25 @ 5:13 PM — A line of showers and storms are just to our west and will move in about 5:30 to 6 PM. They are fast moving but some areas may receive as much as 0.2-0.3″ of rain. Winds pick up this evening after 7 PM with gusts 35-45 mph.
Thanksgiving day looks to be windy and colder, as does Friday. High temperatures on Thursday only in the lower 40s!
The winds calm down for Saturday but a rain storm is expected for Sunday afternoon. Details on the weekend tomorrow.
Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 11/26/25 @ 8:20 AM — The models have not been doing well forecasting the current system. A large area of rain that had been forecast for much of Southern NJ (and part of PHL) this morning has instead moved about 40 miles to the east of its forecast track.
Clouds are expected to break for sun early afternoon before additional clouds move in mid to late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Showers are forecast in Philadelphia around 6-8 PM, but this continues to be a low confidence forecast. High wind gusts are expected with the front.
Wednesday Forecast
Posted Tuesday 11/25/25 @ 5:37 PM — The rain associated with the warm front will become heavier early this evening and will move out of the area by midnight.
Another wave is expected ride up near the area Wednesday morning. The rain is expected to fall from the Delaware Rive and eastward into NJ. Only the eastern part of Philadelphia may see this rain according to the NAM-NEST and the RRFS.
The model blend (NBM) does have this second wave of rain falling more westward, over Philadelphia, ending about 9- 10 AM Wednesday
Wednesday will be warm with periods of sun and clouds. High temperatures will reach 65º-68º
Another line/area of rain will develop ahead of the cold front. Some models show this as early as 4 PM; others delay it to about 7-8 PM.
Temperatures slowly fall Wednesday night. High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day will be in the morning….temps fall throughout the day to the 30s by early evening.
I’m always interested in why that happens and whether there was any sign that the newer forecast couldn’t be trusted. It’s interesting that the HRRR and RRFS / REFS continued with the later rain onset even with the morning model (12z and 15z) runs.
This morning’s NAM-NEST (06z and 12z model runs) more accurately predicted the rain onset between 12 PM and 2 PM. My take-away is that the RRFS/REFS and the HRRR seem to over-delay precipitation onset with warm fronts. We had a similar forecast issue with the last warm front that brought ice pellets to our area a week or so ago.
Tuesday Rain Update
Posted Tuesday 11/25/25 @ 9:27 AM —Last night’s models continued a trend where the rain initially shears off to our north and west during the afternoon. Based on the REFS (which incorporates the HRRR), the current start time for light rain is now between 3PM and 6 PM in the city. The previous start time of 1-3 PM now applies to far northwest Montco and Bucks counties.
I’ll update later this afternoon with Wednesday’s forecast which continues to be somewhat of a mix of sun, clouds and showers.
Tuesday into Wednesday
Posted Monday 11/24/25 @ 8:17 PM — The warm front will be approaching on Tuesday with increasingly cloudy skies. The onset of the rain varies somewhat from model to model, but I’m leaning on the REFS for the timing. Very light rain starts between 2-3 PM near the city, earlier to our west.
The general trend is for the rain to start very light here with somewhat heavier rain after 8 – 9 PM Tuesday evening into the night.
Mild temperatures (60º-65º) and a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday. Additional showers expected late afternoon Wednesday before the cold front moves through about 9 PM with gusty winds. Temperatures drop after the front.
It’s unclear whether a line of showers will form with the actual cold front.
Models guiding this forecast: GFS . REFS, ECMWF-AI,
Thanksgiving Week Outlook
Originally Posted Sun 8:44 PM —The next system to affect us moves in Tuesday into Wednesday with a warm front and its associate rain Tuesday afternoon into night followed by a cold front Wednesday evening. Here’s the setup:
Monday: High pressure builds in for mostly sunny skies. Some high cloudiness in the mid to late afternoon as warm air moves in aloft.
Tuesday: Clouds with rain/showers moving in about 1-3 PM from the west.
Wednesday: Some clearing with sunshine. Then clouds later afternoon with approaching cold front. Windy and gusty with showers Wednesday evening. Highs about 62º
Thursday: Mostly sunny, windy and chilly. Some instability cloudiness likely.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold.
Temperatures (Model Blend)
