Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Fay

FRIDAY FAY UPDATE

Updated Fri 05:14 PM — Philadelphia Airport has had over 4 inches of rain so far!  The NBM forecast from this morning was pretty good.   The NAM NEST had the rain tapering around 2 PM; obviously a wrong call.
Updated Fri 09:49 AM —Updated with latest Model Blend (NBM) from 8 AM this morning.

Updated NBM (8 AM run) accumulated rain forecast.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Updated with latest model blend (NBM) accumulated rain graphic.

The models that are run at 2 AM EDT (06z) continue with a similar forecast as last night. Rain will be starting shortly, if it hasn’t already started in your area.   Precipitation amounts look to be a generalized 1.25-2 “ of rain with some local areas having 3-4”.   (I’ll post a graphic shortly.)

Latest Model Blend (NBM) Accumulated Rain Friday.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

The only change noted in the latest models is a tapering in the rain about 2 PM around here, vs the previous forecasts which had the moderate rain going into the early evening hours.   It appears that the main slug of precipitation shifts northward into northern NJ and northeastern PA.

Here’s the most recent (06z) NAM NEST (High resolution) accumulated rain forecast with a somewhat different area of precip maximum:

NAM NEST Accumulated Rain forecast  (Click on image for a larger view.)