Updates

STORM UPDATE TUESDAY 4PM

6 Comments

I’ve had a chance to look at the morning’s model data. As expected, the mid levels of the atmosphere were too warm to support snow in and around PHL today.  We did have some sleet as the rain fell through colder lower levels and that could continue into the evening.

According to this morning’s profiles, the thermal profiles chill down to support snow about 6-9 am Wednesday morning, earlier north and west. Current NAM QPF is about 1.05 inches water, which in winter,  would be over a foot of snow!   In March, with all sorts of magical guessing, I can see as much as 9 inches of snow on grassy surfaces, with less accumulating on roadways by Wednesday evening.  So snow starts In the morning and continues through the day into evening on Wednesday, 

That’s my current call.  The deciding model run data becomes available between 10pm and 10:40 tonight. I’ll update then.

5 pm update- this afternoon’s NAM (“off-hour” model runs not always reliable) has increased QPF to 1.65 inches water falling as snow.  The trend is increased snow totals, possibly over 12 inches.  Have to wait for tonight’s NAM run.

 

6 thoughts on “STORM UPDATE TUESDAY 4PM”

  1. Way to nail today’s weather. When you predict rain while others call for snow you tend to cite the temp not supporting snow at some level. Any thoughts on how that gets missed?

    1. I don’t know what happens with other forecasters. I suspect they use the the preconfigured snow prediction algorithms rather than using temperature profiles and critical thickness levels.

  3. I have to agree, you are the man!! I tell anyone that will listen that you are the most acurate. I do have a feeling we get over a foot tomorrow in phily. To bad your away and will miss the fun!!

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