INTERESTING THURSDAY & SUMMER-LIKE WEEKEND

Wed 7:51 PM Update — A warm front moves through between 4 AM and 7 AM Thursday morning with showers and thunderstorms.  

A cold front moves through Thursday evening and there will be thunderstorms starting between 5:30 PM and 9 PM Thursday evening and continue into the pre-dawn hours of Friday.   These storms could be strong to severe – several parameters indicate this possibility.

Yet another front moves through Friday afternoon! 

Temperatures on Sunday may be in the low to mid 90s!

I’ll provide an update on Thursday morning.

The cool weather we’ve had recently will slowly depart as a warm front moves through late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Some showers and thunderstorms will arrive with the warm front before daybreak Thursday. (see timing update in green box above.)

A cold front will move through later on Thursday. Some heavy thunderstorms are likely with this frontal passage late Thursday afternoon and evening.

Some showers and thunderstorms will arrive with the warm front before daybreak Thursday. (see timing update in green box above.) I’ll keep an eye on the specifics.

After a brief cool down Friday, the upcoming weekend promises to be warm and summer-like as an upper air high pressure system parks moves over the Great Lakes with the jet stream pushed into Canada—

250 mb Upper air forecast for Sunday  2 PM with jet stream far to our north  (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

I‘ll be providing an update about Thursday’s storms if they continue to look significant.

WEEKEND WEATHER UPDATE

Updated Sun and Mon Forecast on Sun 11:08 AM highlighted below

There are some changes and modifications in the forecast that are more clearly expressed with new post, rather than my usual edit of yesterday’s weekend forecast. See that post for more background info.

Current Sat 3:30 Water Vapor/Radar/RAP jet-level wind streamlines showing upper low—

Water Vapor image Sat 3:30PM depicting upper low. Also shows current radar and jet-level wind direction  (Click on image for a larger view.)

The weekend forecast is mostly on-track. (The hiatus in the rain in Philadelphia this afternoon was predicted by some but not all of the models.) More rain will be moving in later this evening and late night Saturday into Sunday.

The upper low will swing out of here somewhat faster on Monday than yesterday’s models were showing—

  • Monday's Upper Low Position from Friday Models
  • Monday's Upper Low Position from Saturday's Models

It will be cooler than previously forecast on Sunday. Dry on Monday.

Cloudy with periods of rain throughout the day. Difficult to identify a dry period, but mid to late morning until about noon, there may be a pause. (clearly not!) High 52.7º sd 4.7º (NBM Blue Bell)

Rain ends Sunday evening from south to north about 6 -8 PM 8-11 PM according to new HREF model.

Monday

Becoming mostly sunny, a few periods of clouds at times, especially during the mid afternoon. Cooler than previously predicted High 71.2º sd 1.6º High 72.1º sd 1.3º(NBM Blue Bell)

Updated Wind Forecast

NBM wind meteogram Blue Bell

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'