This morning’s models continue showing precipitation starting Friday morning about 8AM and ending Friday evening.
Temperatures at the surface will be around freezing (the MOS lately has not been very accurate with temperatures). Temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will support snow through early afternoon. Temperatures in the upper atmosphere just marginally support snow. QPF values have increased to over 0.65+ inches for both the NAM and GFS. With heavier precipitation rates, dynamic cooling might make temps a bit colder.
Areas to the north and west of Philadelphia are more likely to have snow accumulate.
So a messy day for Friday. Right now it looks like much of the day it will fall as wet snow, but accumulations will be limited, especially on dark asphalt roadways. A change to rain is likely after 3 PM.
Everything is right on the edge of being a rain event, so it would not take much for the expected snow to fall as a wet mix or just rain. Right now, I’m betting on it coming down as snow, likely changing to rain during the mid afternoon on Friday.
While the calendar shows Spring to be starting towards the end of the week, the GFS model is suggesting that Winter will hang on a bit longer.
Following a warm start on Monday, several cold fronts will move through Tuesday into Wednesday and the upper air flow will become the somewhat amplified reminiscent of the pattern that gave us our cold weather through much of February.
While it will not be anywhere as cold, temperatures look to be below average (with some warmer breaks) through the end of March. No major storms are predicted right now, but getting some additional snow isn’t out of the question. Stay tuned.
An uncertain forecast. #PAwx A shift is expected to occur in the jet stream during this coming week and the models are having a tough time predicting the path of the next storm.
Originally, low pressure was expected to move from the US Southwest to the Atlantic coast and then move up as a nor’easter Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Things have changed and now the storm is expected to move up and straight off the coast to our south Monday night into Tuesday morning, ending late morning Tuesday. Different timing and different amounts of snow. The GFS has a QPF of about 0.20 inches water, so 2-4 inches is the best guess.