The next week or two looks to have a very active weather pattern, probably the most active this winter.
Following the possibly heavy rain this Wednesday, the jet stream undergoes several deep amplifications with cold air diving south as moisture emerges from the Gulf of Mexico. The first such amplification on Friday allows the moisture to miss us, but subsequent cold outbreaks next week will result in some impressive storms. It will be a roller coaster regarding temperatures.
Too early to tell if it will be snow, rain or a mix for each one but it will certainly get interesting. Nothing looks like the “blizzard” we just had, but the storminess and temperature swings looks to be impressive. Stay tuned.
Tuesday 8 pm update- The low pressure system this Friday still expected to just miss us, moving to our east. One model has it grazing the jersey shore. A large coastal storm still possible Monday-Tuesday timeframe but timing and track has high variability with different models. Much uncertainty here.
Deep upper air trough with very cold weather next week; we may hear the term “polar vortex”by the end of next week.
Our first encounter with cold weather will end starting tomorrow (Thurs). A warmer and moist southwesterly flow will develop over the weekend. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower but most of the day likely dry.
Rain develops Saturday evening into Sunday, possibly heavy. A strong cold front moves through late Sunday and temperatures will drop during the evening.
Next week will be cold again. Sometime during the following weekend of the 16th, we’ll likely see our first snow.
We finished 2015 with a record-breaking average temperature for December. No secret here…it was warm!
Winter 2016 is looking colder at the start and the trajectory of the flow from the strong El Ninio is changing, with the moisture from the Pacific entering further south along California instead of Washington state. This trajectory usually means more interaction over the southern states and eventually here in the Northeast.
The medium range models have been trending colder than forecast just a few days ago. This means that later this weekend and early next week, we’ll have much colder than average temperatures, something that hasn’t occurred since November. A previously forecast warmup that had been expected the end of next week doesn’t appear to be as warm.
Currently, the interaction of the broad, cold air upper air trough and the southern stream moisture is expected to occur over the Atlantic, leaving our area sunny and cold.
But this jet configuration is a recipe for storm formation. With the new upper air pattern emerging just now, the amount of cold weather and storm development is in flux and forecasts more than 5 days away are expected to be highly changeable. Expect a more active pattern of weather here after next Wednesday.
A slowly advancing warm front is bringing very wet weather to our area today and should taper off on Thursday. Thursday should be dryer, but it’s still possible that we would have a few showers. Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and likely recordbreaking. The frontal boundary pushes south of us again on Friday allowing for a period of drier weather, but it’s not clear how much sun we will get on Friday.
On Saturday the front pushes north of us again with some increased chances of rain and those chances of showers linger through Sunday. It’s possible we’ll get some bright skies and maybe even some sunshine, but the odds are against it and timing will be difficult.
Basically cloudy, mild and wet weather will be with us through next Tuesday.
The first chance of near normal cold weather is New Years Day.