The latest GFS and NAM models show a low pressure system moving up the coast Wednesday with heavy rain mixing with and changing to snow before ending Wednesday evening. Accumulations look to be light in PHL, but bad timing for any holiday travel. Stay tuned.
The model forecasts for the sharp upper trough expected to develop late Friday into Saturday continue to change. Yesterday, the trough was expected to spawn two surface lows, both fairly far off the coast. The latest GFS shows a single deep coastal low develops closer to our area and brings more rain into our area on Saturday. The surface low will deepen and bring very windy conditions to our area Saturday.
Right now, temperatures are not going to be low enough have snow or snow showers as had been thought earlier in the week. But the trend is for windier conditions and more rain on Saturday.
It appears that the extreme cold that was expecteded to spawn low pressure directly over us will to stay over the Appalachians and our area will be indirectly affected by that initial upper air impulse. The secondary coastal low is now expected to form offshore, and both will be too far south and then too far east to directly affect us. There continues to be differences in the models regarding the amount of showers/snow flurries, but the trend has been that much, if not all, will miss us.
It will get colder and WINDY, but the chance of light snow showers here is looking slimmer and slimmer.