Wednesday AM Update: Last night’s NAM has backed off on the snow quite a bit, with much of the precipitation moving past us to our north. The GFS continues with light precip early Friday morning. Will have to wait on this forecast .
Sunday’s potential forecast snow has also changed, with a more definitive movement to our south, missing us.
The newest possible storm is Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. As mentioned many times this season, the lack of model continuity lately has made forecasting beyond a two day timeframe very difficult.
Some snow is looking likely for late Thursday night into Friday morning as a disturbance rides along a stalled frontal boundary.
Despite much recent model run inconsistency, the forecast for this early Friday period has become more consistent
The models are cranking out about 0.30 inches of water falling as snow. It’s extremely difficult to predict accumulations in March, as solar insolation through clouds tends to melt all but the heaviest snows on dark asphalt roadways.
If this were January, we would be talking about 3-4 inches but in March, snow accumulation discussions become more academic with “grassy” surface vs road accumulations. Ground temperatures are starting very warm, further reducing accumulation potential. That said, expect some accumulation at daybreak (due to the onset occurring at night) and messy driving during the morning commute. A coating to an inch, maybe two, is possible.
Looking ahead, a storm on Sunday is expected to keep much of its snow in Maryland and Virginia, but that could change.
Another potential snowfall is possible next Tuesday night.
We’ve had an amazing stretch of anomalously warm weather this February. After a stretch of temperatures in the 70s, we could easily believe that true Spring is around the corner. Not so fast….
In past seasons where we had a very warm winter, it has been the case that colder patterns sometimes setup well into March and April.
While we will have another warm up this Wednesday, the extended range models are showing several outbreaks of cold weather for the first two weeks of March.
An Alberta Clipper may give us some light snow flurries late Thursday night.
Indeed, for the first time this season, the GFS is showing a possible major snowstorm for period around March 13th. (I wouldn’t count on it.).
Either way, while it’s tempting to put away the winter coats, I wouldn’t do it yet. And maybe keep that snow shovel handy as well.
An anomalous retreat of the jet stream into Canada will rexult in unseasonably warm weather starting this weekend and likely continuing through much of next week.
During the coming week, there may be a few times where temperatures exceed 60 degrees.
Don’t get used to it- the extended models have a return to cold temperatures and possibly stormy weather the last days of February and the first week of March.
As has been the case so often this season, the storms predicted in the extended range models seem to disappear in the near term.
Such is the case with the low pressure system that had been predicted to intensify on Sunday afternoon. Instead, the jet stream now flattens, there’s no phasing of streams and a weak system scoots out to sea, hardly affecting us. We’ll have to wait again for snow this season. (Which is fine with me. )