Category Archives: Weather Outlook

Fourth of July Outlook

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So what’s the weather forecast for the 4th?

For Thursday, the 4th of July, high pressure off the New England coast will bring a southeasterly wind flow into NJ.

Through Pennsylvania, a south-southwesterly flow will bring heat and moisture. These two moisture streams will converge.

Yesterday’s models were showing considerable rain for our area on Thursday, with the convergence zone right over us.

However today’s NAM, ECMWF, and GFS have that New England high pressure system building, pushing the convergence zone to our west. With the convergence zone to our west,  the rain should stay to our west as well.

Current GFS forecast- eastern extent of rain Thursday at 5:30 PM

Despite a fair amount of cloudiness, (less cloudy in NJ) much of Thursday afternoon and evening will be dry.   High Thursday 90-92.

Things always seem to change, but right now, things are looking pretty good compared to yesterday’s model forecasts.  Stay tuned.

BTW, tomorrow, Tuesday, looks to have some heavy thunderstorms in the early evening.


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The typical summer weather that has finally come to town will be with us through the end of the week and most of the weekend. High temperatures in the low 90s and dew points moving into the increasingly uncomfortable mid to upper 60s will be the trend through Saturday.

Despite thermodynamic instability from the heat and humidity, the high pressure system aloft and at the surface will prevent much vertical motion, greatly reducing the possibility of thundershowers through Friday.

A weak front will move through on Saturday afternoon.  Mostly sunny skies still expected with some clouds in the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but many areas will stay dry, according to the NAM and GFS.

Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny and a bit less humid. The forecast for Sunday is a bit lower confidence. There’s a question about how far south the front will drop.

Here are the EKDMOS temperatures for the next few days. There’s a bit more spread in the temps on Sunday, suggesting a lower confidence forecast .

EKDMOS high temps



The heavy rain potential will continue with us today, Thursday, for another 24-30 hours, as deep low pressure and deep moisture, (precipitable water values as high as 2.3 inches), moderate to high shear values and high thermodynamic instability values slowly exits late Friday morning.

Today’s high resolution models show several rounds of heavy rain with some scattered heavy rain early afternoon, then the heaviest rain around 4-6 PM and another heavy round about 10-11 PM.   And yet another Friday morning!  Any sun we get today will add fuel to the fire. The most likely severe activity looks to be north into NYC.

Finally for the weekend…

Saturday and Sunday appear to be fine weather days for the first few days of [astronomical] summer. Sunny skies both days with highs on Saturday 78-81 and Sunday 80-83.


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Thurs 7PM Update : Saturday is looking to be the better of the two days this weekend. Saturday will be dry, but the models are suggesting periods of cloudiness, just north and west of the city.

Sunday looks to be unsettled with considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers, both in the morning and especially in the afternoon. It will be warm and humid.

Speaking of the FV3-GFS, the model shows a disturbance moving through on Saturday afternoon, a pseudo-warm front.   Saturday starts sunny, but considerable cloudiness develops in the afternoon.  High 84.    Low dew points to start, but it becomes more humid later in the day.

Sunday looks to be cloudy very early, then hazy sunshine, very warm and somewhat humid.  High 88.   Thunderstorms originally expected in the afternoon now are forecast to move through about 7-8 PM.