Category Archives: Weather Outlook

WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE

This post was revised

Update Tue 09:01 AM —Cancel that Friday storm!

Last night’s models totally moved away from predicting a highly phased storm along the coast for Friday.  Wow, what a change in forecast! Most of the rain will move much further south without jet stream phasing.

So I think that’s probably it with any snow this winter. 

Well, there hasn’t been much ‘weather action’ here this winter.  However, this coming Friday might be the last possibility for any winter weather this year.

There’s much uncertainty about the nor’easter that’s expected to develop in the western Atlantic, but the trend has been for a deep and jet stream phased storm that comes closer to the coast. All models have some form of precipitation, mostly rain for our area.

However, thermal profiles suggest that while we might not get much, if any accumulation, the precipitation may fall as wet snow Friday afternoon.   Basically, the temperatures near the surface are expected to be above freezing, but this highly dynamic system with a closed upper low will have cold air at critical levels for snow to form.

Here is the current GFS forecast for Friday afternoon—

GFS Forecast Friday afternoon

Here’s the current Canadian GDPS  forecast—

Canadian (CMC) Global Deterministic Prediction System Model (GDPS)

It just bears watching.  Sometimes these storms seem to come out of nowhere this time of year, when in fact, the models are suggesting something interesting in this time frame.  Stay tuned.

 

WEEK WEATHER OUTLOOK

We’ve gotten through February with virtually no snow.

As mentioned with my “Weather Outlooks” on February 12th and again on February 18th, the weather pattern of the past few months has been highly predictable and consistent, but changes are in the pattern are inevitable and usually come around just before the change in seasons.

“The current pattern has been with us for almost three months. Like bull stock markets, weather patterns don’t last indefinitely. Weather patterns tend to change as the seasons change.”

Back on February 18th, I saw large increases in the “spread” of the statistical members of the EKDMOS for the last week in February and the first week in March, suggesting a weather pattern change might be on tap.

Well, we’re here in March and indeed, a pattern change is being discussed by the NWS Extended Weather Forecasters Group.

Specifically there are now large spreads and differences in the extended statistical  models and there are hints of a deep storm  forming in the western Atlantic which may bring some interesting weather for us around this Friday’s time frame.  (Hey, it’s the Philadelphia Flower Show week and how many years has some portion of the show been plagued by bad weather forecasts!)

Here’s the current Canadian GEM (GDPS) forecast for Friday morning—

Canadian GDPS forecast for 10 AM Friday

A little far offshore, but this should watched.  I’ll keep an eye on this.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

The strong cold front that moved through early Friday morning has brought much colder weather to our area.

The deep low pressure system to our northeast will affect our weather on Friday and the upper air trough and upper cyclonic flow will bring cold, windy conditions for Saturday, moderating Sunday.

GFS forecast 500 mb  height Upper Air contours (18,000 feet)  (blue lines) for Saturday 12 noon.

With several areas of vorticity and unstable cyclonic flow, it’s looking like we’ll have a mix of sun and periods of low level cloudiness on Saturday.  High 41º (EDKMOS) seems too high.  The NBM has a high of 36º  (It’s likely to fall somewhere in the middle).

The GFS has it windy both days:

GFS wind and gust forecast Sat and Sun,      Winds 20-30 mph from WNW.

The NBM blend has winds lower than this.

For Sunday, the upper trough moves to our east.  It will be mostly sunny and but still somewhat windy.   High 45 (EKDMOS) or 44 (NBM).

For snow lovers, there’s still nothing in the extended model forecasts.   Warmer weather again next week.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

The weather forecast for this weekend continues to be uneventful with high pressure bringing fair skies and near to above average temperatures on Saturday, then even milder temperatures with the return southwesterly flow on Sunday.

With sunshine both days, high temperatures on Saturday 49 and Sunday 53.  The statistical EKDMOS has temperatures on Sunday near 58.

Long range, the pattern we’ve see these past weeks is likely to continue through the end of February.  There is some question about a low pressure system expected to develop next Thursday, but rain rather than snow in our area is the most likely precipitation type according to the GFS.   The Canadian GDPS and the German ICON models suggest a different position of cold air and a low possibility of snow, but they have been wrong several times in past weeks.  The GFS has been the best model this season.

Since there’s not much weather to talk about, here’s a photo of the altocumulus translucidus visible this afternoon —

Altocumulus translucidus

Posting cloud pictures makes me nostalgic for the days when I would forecast the weather with just a barometer, wind vane and a view of the sky.  (It worked pretty good in the summer seasons, not that good in the winter.)

Here’s an image taken from a cloud chart that I’ve had since I was 11 years old showing the cloud type and recommended forecast:

From Downeaster Cloud Chart

With the winds from the NW this afternoon, the cloud chart recommended forecast would have been correct.