Category Archives: Weather Outlook

SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING?

Let me answer the title question up front – I don’t think so.

All models keep the critical thickness levels too warm for snow formation here on Thursday morning.  What we may have is a brief period of sleet or freezing rain before changing to rain early and even that is in doubt.

Basically, there may be some ‘cold air damming’ which results in a cold lower layer, allowing sleet and icy conditions before a change over to rain.

We really won’t have a good handle on the thermal profiles for Thursday until Wednesday night.   But I felt I had to chime in, after hearing a hyped up forecast from the local TV weather people.

As mentioned, the models have been highly inconsistent over the past week.  If there’s any chance of more interesting weather, it might be with the departure of this system late Thursday or Friday morning.  Stay tuned.

WEATHER OUTLOOK

Monday AM Update: The models are showing yet another coastal storm sometime during the Thursday-Friday time frame. Timing issues still exist.

Cold air rushing in after the low departs may again give us the first chance of some mixed non-accumulating precipitation this season. Too many unknowns at this time.  Stay tuned.

The computer model forecasts over the past several days have been very changeable:  While the coastal storm for Monday night into Tuesday is still mostly on-track, the speed of the system has increased while the amount of cold air on the back side of the system has decreased.

We’ll have rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning, heavy at times. No flurries or snow showers expected on Tues night, although things chill down for Wednesday but it won’t be as cold as previously forecast.

Another interesting storm is possible on Thursday morning with the possibility of some frozen precipitation early, before changing to rain.

There’s a lot of uncertainty with this system- there are even large differences even between the GFS and the FV3-GFS!

  • GFS Operational Thursday morning forecast

Next weekend looks to be very cold as a dip in the jet is forecast to be in place.   But things could change.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED

Thursday Update:  Notice how significantly the predicted jet stream trough for Monday has changed over the past few days:

  • GFS forecast
    GFS Forecast for Monday Morning, Nov 12th

The weekend remains cold, but the temperatures on Monday will be warmer than had been predicted.   Very cold temperatures are now forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The current outlook for this weekend is dry, windy and chilly on Saturday and mostly sunny and chilly on Sunday.

My post last Sunday identified the cold outbreak that’s expected this weekend. With the amplification of the jet stream and the development of a significant trough by next Tuesday, a coastal system is expected to develop and to bring rain to our area, and some snowfall is possible in western PA.

Even more interesting is that the FV3-GFS (still under development but expected to become the NWS main global model in January) suggests that even some wet snow flakes may move in  during the end of the storm Tuesday night.

This outbreak of cold weather will be the first of several, with a number of storms expected between now and Thanksgiving.   Stay tuned.

VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND

Monday Update
It appears that the cold snap in our area will be delayed a bit and will likely occur late Sunday night into Tuesday.  Monday’s models show a slightly less amplified jet stream.

Tues update: Some of the models are showing a coastal storm developing as a result of this jet dip next Tuesday with some snow falling in western PA and possibly further east.  

So far, the autumn season has been a mix— a very mild and rainy September and plenty of rain in October.

This week we will have another few days of mild weather, but things are setting up for a change to much colder weather, at least for a period, sometime next weekend.

Over the past few days, the  medium and long range models have been showing a cold short term pattern developing the end of next weekend that one would expect to see in winter— a highly amplified jet stream, allowing unseasonably cold air to flood into the US.

Here’s the current operational GFS for next early Monday, showing the highly amplified jet stream for early November:

GFS forecast
GFS Forecast for Monday Morning, Nov 12th

This amplification is impressive for this early in the season.

So, get your winter coat ready, at the very least, for next weekend.

By the way, above average temperatures will likely return after this cold outbreak.