Category Archives: Weather Forecasts

FRIDAY FORECAST

Updated Fri 10:35 AM — This mornings models continue with showers moving in about 12-1 PM.  While most areas will receive about 0.2- 0.4 inches of rain, there will be isolated areas that have downpours of much more. These areas will be west of Philadelphia.

NAM-NEST Accumulated Rain by 5 Pm Friday  (Click on image for a larger view.)

An upper air low moves towards us as it weakens.  Rain moves in about noon.

Friday —

  • Cloudy
  • Rain moves in about noontime. QPF  0.2-0.4 inches, more west of the city
  • High temp 69.4° sd 3.2°      68.6° HRRR
  • winds ESE 7 mph, gusts to 15

THURSDAY FORECAST

Updated Thu 07:07 AM — The 2AM (06 UTC) model runs are more optimistic about sunshine today. They have high pressure again suppressing clouds to our south for much of the day.

Thursday’s forecast had been looking clear cut– high pressure nosing in would continue to suppress clouds and moisture to our south.

Tonight’s HRRR and RAP models just became available (these short range models are the first to become available this early during Daylight Saving Time) have moisture and clouds just reaching Philadelphia.  Areas just north of the city will have mostly sunny skies; areas just south look to be mostly cloudy.

For Thursday—

  • Areas just north of the city will have mostly sunny skies; areas just south look to be mostly cloudy.
  • Light winds E —> SE 7 mph
  • High temp 68.5° sd 2.7° ( high spread) HRRR 69.5°
HRRR cloud forecast 3pm

 

WEDNESDAY FORECAST

It was very sunny out this afternoon.  I’ve looked back at this morning’s models; almost every one of them had predicted significant cloudiness this afternoon. ( As  I often say, a tropical system in the picture seems to throw off most model forecasts.)

The only one that got this sunny forecast right was the German ICON  model.

I download the ICON model data daily as a curiosity; I have never based a forecast on it.

(Maybe I’ll need to look at the ICON model in the future when tropical systems are in the picture?)

ICON EPS forecast for this afternoon, Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

For Wednesday, most models repeat the same forecast- cloudy in the morning, with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. (The ICON model has the same forecast.) High pressure in the northeast strengthens and noses down into our area.

Wednesday—

  • Clouds in the morning, brightening late morning
  • Sunshine through some high clouds in the afternoon.
  • Winds E becoming ESE 10-12 mph.   Gusts to 20
  • Winds decrease later in the afternoon.
  • High temp  62.6° sd 1.2° (NBM)        61.1º (HRRR)

FYI – Showers are being forecast for some of Friday and Saturday

 

 

TUESDAY FORECAST

During the Corona Virus Pandemic shutdown, I’ve been doing daily forecasts. However, I’ll be returning to the office next week and this blog will return to its regular Weekend Weather Forecasts along with its significant Storm Forecasts focus.

The blocked pattern along with a cut off upper air low and two surface lows will continue to affect our area through Saturday.

For Tuesday, expect similar weather we’ve had over the past two days—

  • Sun through high clouds in the morning.
  • More cloudiness later in the afternoon.
  • Increasingly windy conditions.  Gusts near 40mph in the afternoon.
  • High temp 66.8º sd 1.2º HRRR 68.3°

The long term forecast for the weekend isn’t high confidence.  Saturday may have showers and thunderstorms.  Sunday and Monday look to be better.