Category Archives: Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

 

The weather wasn’t quite what had been forecast. The models over-predicted the thickness of the cloud cover today (at times the sun was breaking through mid-afternoon) and were off about the drizzle.

Sat 07:39 PM Update —Today’s models are less impressive with the drizzle for Sunday afternoon. Some are still showing drizzle, mostly mid to late afternoon.

A series of weak frontal systems will pass through our area over the weekend. The general overview is that Saturday will be the nicer of the two days this weekend.

The latest GFS model shows some cloudiness moving in from the west Saturday afternoon. (Previous model runs had kept us sunny.) There’s uncertainty about light drizzle Sunday afternoon but the trend is towards some light scattered drizzle mid to late afternoon.

Saturday—

A weak cold front moves through before daybreak Saturday. A northwesterly flow of air moves in, but temperatures will be above seasonal averages. (average high 51º-52º)

  • Mostly sunny skies, high to mid level cloudiness moves in during the afternoon, especially western suburbs.
  • Low temperature early morning 44.0º sd 2.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temperature 61.6º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell.
  • Winds light, NW–>N 5-8 mph

Sunday—

As the high pressure system moves to our north, an easterly to northeasterly flow will develop for Sunday and significant cloudiness will develop.

Low pressure to our west will slide off to our northwest and a warm front will move through late Sunday and then a cold front Sunday night. Some, but not all models, are showing light showers and drizzle mid to late Sunday afternoon. It will be a stereotypical dark, cloudy November day although still mild.

Sunday—

  • Low level clouds
  • Some scattered, light drizzle possible, during the mid to late afternoon.
  • Low temperature early morning 39.3º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temp 52.9º sd 2.4º (NBM model) Blue Bell area.
  • Winds E–>SE 10-12 mph with gusts to 15 mid afternoon.
Short Range Ensemble Forecast 3:00 PM Sunday. This SREF model does NOT show any drizzle, nor does the current NBM model. The higher resolution models do show drizzle.
High Resolution HIRESW-FV3 Model (Pre-release version) Simulated Radar 3 PM Sunday

I expect some clarification about the drizzle for Sunday. Stay tuned.

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

The system that moved through Thursday into Friday brought some much-needed rain to the Philadelphia area. High pressure will build in for Saturday before a strong cold front moves through later Sunday.

Saturday will feature sunny skies. Highs will be not far from the average high for this time of year: 53-55º

  • Mostly sunny skies, high to mid level cloudiness moves in during the afternoon, especially western suburbs.
  • Low temperature early morning 44.0º sd 2.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temperature 61.6º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell.
  • Winds light, NW–>N 5-8 mph
Short Range Ensemble Forecast for Sunday 1 PM showing showers and general jet flow.

For Sunday, it will be mild. A strong cold front approaches during the day and winds will increase. There’s a good model consensus that there will be light rain Sunday afternoon.

  • Low level clouds
  • Some scattered, light drizzle possible, during the mid to late afternoon.
  • Low temperature early morning 39.3º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temp 52.9º sd 2.4º (NBM model) Blue Bell area.
  • Winds E–>SE 10-12 mph with gusts to 15 mid afternoon.

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Following such an eventful week politically, I’m going to keep this forecast short and sweet.

High pressure continues to dominate our weather and will give us fair skies and a southwesterly flow will bring increasingly mild conditions.

The same strong high pressure system will block the northeastern motion of tropical storm Eta as well as its moisture.

Saturday will be sunny and mild. High temperature 71º with light winds.

Sunday will be sunny and mild. High temperature 72º with light winds.

Enjoy!

SUNDAY FORECAST UPDATE

As first noted last night, Sunday’s forecast for late afternoon light showers has changed significantly.

A strong cold front will spawn coastal low pressure.  Rain will move in around  noon.  Winds will become gusty by late morning with gusts 35-40 mph. Accumulated rain will be about 0.4-0.6”, higher in NJ.   High temperature 53-55°

The actual cold front moves through between 5-6 PM with a shift in winds to the NW.  Still gusty winds.

Temps drop into the 30s during the Eagles game.  Winds gusty early will reduce somewhat by late evening.