Category Archives: Weather Forecasts


The rainy, dreary weather forecast for the upcoming weekend has been well advertised.  What can I add to the information?

Well, it appears that the early part of Saturday morning will be [relatively] dry, but there is still a small chance of light sprinkles or drizzle in the morning with increasingly likelihood by noon and likely by the afternoon.  So, if you’re interested in outdoor activities, Saturday morning is the time.   Either way, any showers will be light until late in the afternoon. High 59.

By Saturday night, the chance of rain increases and moderate rain is likely as the evening progresses.

Sunday will be rainy, and rain could be moderate to heavy during the morning, decreasing in intensity during the afternoon.   High 60.

Sunday GFS forecast

Saturday 2 pm: Today’s rains moved in close to expected, but the initial burst was a lot heavier than I had predicted and a bit earlier. The models still have moderate to heavy rain for much of Sunday, especially during the morning.



As mentioned in my post yesterday, there’s much uncertainty with all aspects of the storm that is expected to develop Saturday evening.    Much of the details won’t be resolved until the immediate 24 hours preceding the event. Here’s what we know now-

  • It’s a fast mover.  Over in about 7 hours.
  • Precipitation starts during the late afternoon or early evening Saturday and ends well before daybreak on Sunday.
  • Temperatures appear marginal for snow in the immediate PHL area and immediate western suburbs.  The NAM which showed snow likely for PHL has flipped to a warmer scenario and is now favoring rain or rain maybe with sleet.
  • Temperatures on Sunday, with sunshine, will melt much of whatever falls, if it falls as snow.  There’s no post-storm freeze.

So, anyone thinking this will be “February-style big snowstorm” is likely to be disappointed.




A southwesterly flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will stream up over us ahead of a slow moving cold front bringing plenty of clouds and precipitation this weekend.

Saturday starts cloudy with some light sprinkles possible very early.  There may be a period from morning to early afternoon that is mostly dry (except for those light sprinkles).   During the afternoon, the first of several waves of low pressure will move up from the southwest bringing increasing chances of rain by 2-4 PM. High temperature around 52.

Rain is expected for much of Saturday night and especially Sunday morning with rain totals for the weekend predicted to be over two inches!   High Sunday near 60.


In my neck of the woods, just northwest of the city, a coating of sleet and freezing rain is accumulating.   The QPF was a bit higher than I  predicted last night; a few heavier areas of precipitation allowed some “dynamic cooling” and some snow flakes were able to develop briefly, but essentially it’s been sleet and freezing rain in PHL and the immediate suburbs.

Temperatures are still expected to rise above freezing about 10 AM or so.   Rain is expected for most to the day, heavier in the afternoon.