Brief Update: Rain and showers are expected throughout Saturday.  About 0.5 inches of rain expected.

There is still uncertainty about some aspects of Sunday’s forecast.

This morning’s models have light scattered showers in the morning Sunday.

For Sunday afternoon, the GFS has the warm front moving through about 3-5 PM with a significant upper air ‘short wave’ moving through.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with this potent area of localized vorticity—

The energy for the most thunderstorms, as measured by the parameter called CAPE (convective available potential energy) is indicated in the darker shades of orange below; notice it is mostly south and west of our immediate area—

It’s important to note that the NAM model and  NAM-NEST models suppress this wave to our west and south and keep an easterly flow until 7 -8 PM, reducing the chance of thunderstorms here and delaying the warmup somewhat.

We’ll see how this unfolds with future model runs.

Stay safe and healthy.