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Storms Thursday Evening
Updated Thursday 06/11/26 @ 4:40 PM —The models show the heaviest storms will be in the western suburbs of Philadelphia this evening. The storms may weaken considerably as they move into NJ.
Updated Thursday 06/11/26 @ 12:05 PM — The edge of a tropical airmass will be at our front door this evening and very strong dynamics with high precipitable water and very high CAPE will cause thunderstorms to form and be potentially quite severe. Here is the latest RRFS forecast derived “theta-e frontogenic forcing graphic indicating strong upward motion and energy.
The only ingredient missing is a uniform layer of high humidity at 700 mb (10,000 feet), suggesting possible less organization with the storm clusters. (See comments section for more)
Updated Wednesday 06/10/26 @ 10:05 AM —Warm/hot humid air is approaching our area and is rising over and replacing the relatively cooler air at the surface. (A warm air advection.) Much needed showers have developed as a result. The somewhat arbitrary line for a tropical airmass is the 760 thickness line (500-1000mb thickness) visible as orange in the GFS synoptic map below—
A weak cold front (more of a wind shift) will push through Thursday evening and night with the possibility of strong thunderstorms. Hot a humid weather is expected for Friday with additional activity over the weekend.
Updated Tuesday 06/08/26 @ 9:49 PM —A large pool of hot air is developing in the central US and the heat and humidity will attempt to move into our area on Wednesday in the form of a warm front. Significant rain is expected to develop during the day Wednesday along with thunderstorms.
There will not be much influence of a nearby jet streak, so rain and thunderstorms will develop unimpeded, although they may not pack the punch of having a jet level assist. As I’ve been saying for months, we need the rain!
