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Friday Update Saturday Outlook
Posted Friday 05/08/26 @ 10:44 AM — This morning’s NBM has returned the chance of showers moving in from the west about 4 -6PM Friday afternoon. This morning’s RRFS keeps the showers north – in Bucks county
Posted Friday 05/08/26 @ 8:19 AM —The showers that were a possibility for this afternoon are no longer in the forecast. Any showers today will be in the evening and likely far north of our area.
For Saturday, there’s a divergence in the model forecasts, with some having some showers beginning in the 11 AM-1PM time frame and others holding off the main shower activity until mid to late afternoon.
One thing the models do have in common is a possible ‘doughnut hole’ in the precipitation field over Philadelphia. The NAM-NEST captures this best—
Friday
Posted Thursday 05/07/26 @ 7:40 PM — As captured in this morning’s water vapor image, there are significant disturbances up stream from us that will bring chances of showers through the next several days.
A disturbance in northwest Pennsylvania will bring some light showers to us after midnight tonight (early Friday morning)
There’s a bit of a question mark regarding Friday. Another disturbance is forecast by the RRFS and REFS to move through during Friday afternoon and evening with additional showers. Timing is important as they may move in as early as 2 PM or as late as 4-6 PM. I’ll update Friday morning.
Yet another disturbance, this one stronger, will bring clouds and showers on Saturday, mostly late morning into late afternoon.
Thursday-Friday
Posted Thursday 05/07/26 @ 10:43 AM —The sun has broken out from the city westward, but some showers and clouds may linger in southeastern NJ until mid afternoon.
For the rest of today (Thursday), expect sunshine.
A series of disturbances are rotating around an upper air low pressure system in Canada. Areas of moisture will combine with these disturbances to bring showers, perhaps later on Friday afternoon/evening and again on Saturday (mostly north of the city). Timing and exact placement of the showers are ‘up in the air’ right now.
Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 05/06/26 @ 9:03 AM — The forecast rain is just west of Philadelphia at 9 AM and will be moving into the city by 10 AM. Latest REFS models have brought down the precipitation to the range forecast by the majority of other models – about 0.20″ with a few locally higher amounts in Southern NJ and far west in Berks County (Forget the high totals from last night’s posted ‘experiment’.)
Additional scattered showers expected during the afternoon. It won’t be raining all of the time. The actual cold front moves through between 5:30 PM and 8 PM with additional showers.
Changed Forecast
Posted Tuesday 05/05/26 @ 5:31 PM — The trend towards little rainfall continues. A divergent and anticyclonic upper air pattern along with somewhat low precipitable water values should keep any rainfall over the next two days to under 0.35″ according to most models.
According to the latest RRFS, these light showers move in from the west during the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday. Additional light scattered showers around 1:30 PM and again around 5 PM and 8 PM There may be breaks of sunshine between these multiple rounds of light scattered showers.
After midnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, additional scattered showers. There may be a rumble of thunder in some spots, mostly far south of the city.
Thursday may have some clouds and a widely scattered shower in the morning but many areas will see sunshine for the afternoon.
The most optimistic model regarding rainfall is the REFS (which may be wrong by a factor of 2, but I’m putting it out here as a experiment—
Tuesday through Thursday Update
Posted Tuesday 05/05/26 @ 8:30 AM — Today’s forecast remains essentially unchanged. There’s a chance Philadelphia may see highs near 87º or perhaps 88º. Winds increase significantly in the afternoon and evening with gusts near 40 mph.
A cold front will move through on Wednesday. Precipitation appears to be on the light side for our area. Another low pressure system expected to form along the front was expected to bring additional rain on Thursday… that low is now forecast to exit to our south with precipitation just brushing Philadelphia.
Thursday may turn out to be drier than originally forecast.
Tuesday Wednesday Update
Posted Monday 05/04/26 @ 8:04 PM — Two more things… Despite the mid 80s temperatures on Tuesday, dew points will be very low. Indeed, it will feel cooler than the thermometer temperature. The winds will further reduced the effect of the temperature.
The rain on Wednesday and Thursday will be light, not the sort of rainfall we really need. Combined rainfall totals for both days range from only 0.20″ to 0.35″
Posted Monday 05/04/26 @ 4:08 PM — We had two incredibly perfect Spring days Sunday and Monday. We’ll have a well-advertised taste of early summer on Tuesday. High temperature forecasts have increased since yesterday. Here’s the latest model blend high temperatures with a higher range indicating standard deviation—
It will be windy on Tuesday, especially during the afternoon hours until early evening—
Wednesday is looking rainy, as a cold front approaches from the west. The onset of the rain looks to be earlier— 7 AM western sections and between 8-9 AM around Philadelphia.
Some strong dynamics are forecast to move through about 10 AM. Despite this, no severe or even very strong storms are forecast at this time.
Originally Posted Sun 7:17 PM —Two significant weather events in store for us this week. Tuesday will feature a major warm-up with temperatures reaching the mid 80s!
Yet another cold front will move in on Wednesday afternoon with rain. This front may stall with lingering showers into Thursday. The GFS has it lingering, the ECMWF has it moving off to the coast. Temperatures drop behind the front.
Details to follow during the week!
