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Sunday Forecast Update
Posted Sunday 03/29/26 @ 11:22 AM —
Sunny. Some clouds move in this evening.
|
|
Blue Bell, PA |
Phila, PA
|
Mean Plus sd * (MOST LIKELY HIGH) ºF |
Heat or
Wind |
Max Wet Bulb Globe Temp |
|
TMP–sd overall forecast confidence |
Time of High Temp |
|
NBM Highs |
56 |
58 |
58 61 |
57 58 |
48 50 |
|
2 -good average |
5 PM |
Following our delightful warm weather, a cold front moved through Friday morning and colder weather is in store for us over this weekend. The cold weather should be short-lived, as a trend towards warmer weather is definitely appearing in the longer range forecast maps.
A warm front will move through on Monday into Tuesday. Milder weather next week but with periods of rain likely sometime Wednesday.
With the availability of the new Model Blend (NBM version 5) I’m expanding the use of the model’s statistics and the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature”- a more advanced form of the Heat Index which also includes effects of direct sunshine. This will be a trial. We’ll see how this goes.
Saturday Forecast
Mostly sunny. A bit of instability cloudiness possible in the afternoon.
|
|
Blue Bell, PA |
Phila, PA mean ºF |
Mean Plus sd * (MOST LIKELY HIGH)ºF |
Max Wet Bulb Globe Temp º F ** |
TMP–sd based overall forecast confidence*** |
High Reached at |
|
High Temperatures |
44.7 |
46.4 |
47-49º |
39-40º |
2 -good average |
5 PM |
* Mean Plus sd is the most likely High Temperature.
** Wet bulb globe temperature- A more accurate Wind Chill or Heat Index- takes into account direct sunshine on the body and heat stress.
***Forecast Confidence based on NBM model Temperature standard deviation (sd),
sd based Forecast confidence: sd- 4-8 very low confidence. sd 2-4 Below average confidence sd 2-3 somewhat lower than average confidence sd <= 2.0 average- good confidence sd< 1.3 excellent
• High Temperatures are generally reached between 2:45 PM and 5:00 PM in the Summer
Sunday Forecast
Sunny. Windy conditions will make it feel colder than it is.
|
|
Blue Bell, PA |
Phila, PA mean ºF |
Mean Plus sd * (MOST LIKELY HIGH)ºF |
Max Wet Bulb Globe Temp º F ** |
TMP–sd based overall forecast confidence***
|
High Reached at |
|
High Temperatures |
54 |
56 |
57-58º |
47-48 |
2 -good to average |
5 PM |
