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Friday Update
Posted Thursday 04/02/26 @ 6:02 PM — We didn’t get anywhere near the NBM forecast high of the 50s today. We stayed in the mid-40s.
Drizzle and light rain have developed and will continue through much of the night. Some showers are forecast to move in about 1 AM, mostly west of the immediate city.
The latest RRFS still shows sunshine through thin cirrus by about 12-1 PM Friday, earlier west and south. The NAM-NEST is somewhat later, about 3 PM. I’m going with the RRFS.
Stationary Front–> Warm Front
Posted Thursday 04/02/26 @ 9:04 AM — Today, Thursday, we have a classic setup of a stationary front just to our south with moisture over-riding the front from the south and west. This front will transition to warm front today and move north us Friday morning. (It should be pointed out that the timing for a warm front passage is often less than precise.)
Current Water Vapor Image—
Temperatures today will be in the mid 50s by afternoon according to the NBM.
As the warm front begins to move north later this evening, some showers and thundershowers are likely after midnight into early Friday morning (2 AM). These are not expected to be strong or even severe, but the models sometimes underestimate night-time warm fronts. I’ll update later if things change.
According to the latest RRFS, the low clouds transition to sunshine through high clouds between 12 PM and 1 PM on Friday—
While today (Thursday) will be chilly with an easterly flow off the ocean, Friday will become much warmer.
Saturday looks very nice. Rain on Easter Sunday.
An Interesting Set-Up
Posted Wednesday 04/01/26 @ 8:06 PM — The front dropped through from the north this afternoon and is just south of the Philadelphia area, as shown by the latest RTMA wind streams at 7:30 PM EDT—
The latest hourly RAP model shows winds at 10,000 feet riding over the stalled front, almost as a warm-front scenario—
As forecast, shower and thunderstorms will move in by 10 PM, but it appears it may be earlier as the moisture aloft rides over the frontal boundary at the surface. Omega values are moderate (8-10) so I expect the rain and storms to hold together. BUT, despite the Severe Thunderstorm warnings, I don’t expect this activity to be in the truly severe category. As shown, it will be scattered. Not all areas will be affected. Southern areas (S NJ- Delaware have the highest chances.) (Disclaimer— all thunderstorms have dangerous lightning)
Wednesday Thursday Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 04/01/26 @ 8:12 AM — A very warm southwesterly flow ahead of a sagging cold front will bring sunny skies and very warm temperatures today. Highs 83º-84º. It will also be somewhat windy.
The cold front moves through about 8 PM today with a few showers and storms. Again, I don’t see much severe weather from this front, but the NWS will likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch or warning, mostly for public safety reasons.
As the front moves through it will stall and winds will shift to the east northeast as high pressure remains to our north.
Of interest…a low pressure wave will develop along the stalled front and bring some heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms about 11 PM to 1 AM Thursday morning. These storms look to have heavier rainfall than those with the actual front earlier in the evening.
With the easterly wind, low clouds and cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday.
Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Tuesday 03/31/26 @ 5:56 PM — A cold front will sag through our area from the north later Wednesday into Thursday. The upper level dynamics (jet stream configuration and winds) aren’t favorable for organized severe or even very strong storms.
Scattered showers and thundershowers are possible both early morning and increasingly probable from early afternoon through Wednesday evening and night. Precipitable water is not all that high (1.2-1.3″) so heavy rain for an extended period isn’t likely. (I’m sure a severe thunderstorm watch or warning will be issued for some area though, despite the limited dynamics available.)
Highs tomorrow 83-84º in Philadelphia. There will be considerably more cloud cover on Wednesday compared to Tuesday.
Tuesday Update
Posted Tuesday 03/31/26 @ 9:36 AM — Today’s highs may reach the low 80s.
Some scattered showers and thundershowers may break out north and west of the immediate city during the late afternoon and early evening. They are not expected to move into the city.
Tuesday-Wednesday Update
Posted Monday 03/30/26 @ 5:43 PM — The mix of clouds and sun will continue through Wednesday. The jet stream is to our north and has a general anticyclonic flow. Low pressure to our west is sending weak disturbances but overall sinking air is preventing organized rain from developing.
Some light sprinkles are expected tonight, after midnight, mostly north of our area.
On Tuesday, more sunshine and clouds. The latest RRFS has some showers about 8 PM somewhat far north of the city. The Model Blend has these showers into Philadelphia. Too soon to see which is correct.
Wednesday looks very warm (low 80s), mostly sunny with periods of clouds. Some heavier rain moves in mid-evening hours.
Originally Posted Sun 4:39 PM —High pressure that gave us fair skies and cool windy conditions over the weekend will drift to our east. Low pressure in the central US will move northeastward with an associated warm front. Most of the showers associated with this front will occur to our far north.
Monday – Periods of clouds and sun. A few light showers possible mid afternoon. Highs near 73º
Tuesday- showers associated with the warm front early morning and to our far north. Skies clear for some sun and milder temperatures. Highs 81º.
Wednesday- A cold front approaches. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 81º
Thursday-Saturday- Cooler. The front may stall giving us rain.
