WINTER 2022-2023 SNOW OUTLOOK

I’m often asked around this time of year whether we’ll get a lot of snow in the coming winter. My response over the past two to three winters has been that I don’t see any pattern evolving that would give us a greater likelihood for large snowfalls.

All I would say is that large temperature swings would be something to expect. The last three winters have been light on large snowfalls with large swings in temperatures every few weeks.

The large swings in temperature are likely to continue this winter.

In years where I see a pattern evolving, I usually wait until the first week of December to make the call. But this year, I’m chiming in early.

Let me cut to the chase— The jet pattern I’ve seen develop over the past month hasn’t been seen in several past winters. If it continues, it translates into more frequent coastal storm development with higher snowfall amounts this winter for our area.

The jet stream pattern forecast for this weekend captures the setup—

NAEFS forecast jet stream (250 mb winds) for Saturday. Plunging jet stream in central Canada with strong southern stream jet flow converging. This is a very different setup than we saw much of last winter where the plunge of cold air was much further into eastern Canada.

Climate forecasts are tough and even the experts at the NWS Climate Center have not always done well. Climate forecasts and weather forecasts, while they may appear on the surface to somewhat similar, are very different sciences. Climatologists even have their own models.

I’m more knowledgeable about weather compared to climate, but I’ve been looking at the maps these past few weeks and I wanted to share what I see in them a bit earlier in the season than usual.

While I’m at it, we need to keep an eye on Thanksgiving weekend, especially next Friday night into Saturday. Our first taste of either light snow or a mix is possible.

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

Rain Totals and Cold Weather

Update Wed 11/16 @ 8:09 AM — The models did well with the forecast precipitation. Here’s the MRMS estimated totals; compare to the HREF forecast below—

MRMS measured rainfall totals from last night’s rain. (contours are in mm. 25.4mm =1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)

Below seasonable average temperatures expected for the weekend and remaining somewhat cold through much of next week.

Long Range Outlook- Thanksgiving day looks to become rainy into next Friday. Possibility of a coastal storm next weekend with snow or mix quite near our area.


Moderately Heavy Rain

Update Tue 11/15 @ 11:55 AM
No change in the forecast. Rain moves in from the southwest as early as 2-4 PM. Moderately heavy rain tonight. A generalized 1 to 1.4″ according to the HREF model—

This mornings’ HREF model total rainfall totals. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Rain ends around daybreak Wednesday. Some sun but mostly clouds until about 2 PM in the afternoon.

I took a quick look at the forecast for Thanksgiving day. Looks like some rain.


Update Mon 11/14 @ 11:14 AM
A quick update. The latest models have the rain coming in earlier on Tuesday and departing earlier on Wednesday. Rain begins as early as 3-4 PM Tuesday afternoon and ends around daybreak Wednesday. Some clearing expected during by the afternoon Wednesday. Total rainfall about 0.75 to 1.1″

Colder temperatures behind this system for Wednesday night through Thursday.


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Previously Posted Sun 9:12 PM —

This week’s weather will be influenced by a jet flow to our south, allowing cold air to move into our area. Additionally, a disturbance now near Arizona (not related to the election) will move east and spawn a coastal storm that will bring rain to our area late Tuesday.

Here’s the current jet flow and water vapor image—

Current Water Vapor image (with radar and jet flow) shows developing low pressure near the four corners area Sunday night. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Below is the latest GFS model for the same time period. Notice the Water Vapor image above (with Radar) shows some precipitation but the GFS below doesn’t—

GFS Forecast for the same time period as the water vapor image above. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The model forecasts for this system have been changing throughout the weekend, although they are coming together.

Rain is now expected to move in here as early as late afternoon Tuesday. (Previous model runs had it moving in on Wednesday and being further off the coast.)

Here’s the latest GFS v 16.3 forecast for Wednesday at 1AM—

18z GFS forecast for Wednesday at 1 AM. Coastal storm with rain for our area. Notice the red (540 thickness line) which is a general rain-snow dividing line in winter. (Click on image for a larger view.)

With the above satellite image not really matching the current GFS forecast, I expect to see some additional changes in the forecast. Stay tuned.