WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST – EARLY EDITION

[su_box title=”Saturday Weather Update ” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]No major change in the forecast. Sunday will be mostly sunny until the late afternoon. Rain Sunday evening will be light. Some flakes may mix in at the start in north of Trenton, but all rain otherwise.

Watching a more interesting system for Wednesday, with snow likely mixing and changing to freezing rain/sleet, then rain. Some snow accumulation likely Wednesday morning. Stay tuned. [/su_box]

[su_box title=”Weekend Weather Update ” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Saturday will be sunny and chilly. (Cancel the windy conditions.) High temperatures 42-43.

Sunday now looks to have some cloudiness in the morning, then sunny until later in the afternoon, when clouds move in. High 40. Rain, possibly starting with a few flakes of snow, in the evening/night (GFS).

There are differences between the NAM and GFS regarding QPF, but when it rains, nobody really cares if we get 0.10inches of rain or 0.30 inches. [/su_box]

Details from earlier today…

Let me preface this by noting that today was supposed to be cloudy. The models didn’t do too well yesterday.  Let’s see how they do for the weekend.

A frontal system will move through early evening tonight. Only some cloudiness and a low chance of a sprinkle will accompany the front.

Colder air moves in for Saturday. It will be mostly sunny and windy. High 41.

On Sunday, a weak and poorly organized low pressure system moves in later in the day. Sunday starts with some sun, but expect clouds to move in during the late morning.    There are some timing differences with the models with the NAM having some light precip in the afternoon, while the GFS is later, into the evening.

Both the GFS and NAM are similar with QPF values of about 0.12 inches water.   The precipitation will likely fall as rain or possibly rain mixed with snow, as high temperatures are expected to be about 39 and critical temperatures in the upper atmosphere are borderline too warm for snow.

There are enough model differences with this system, that I expect the forecast to change.  Stay tuned.

ABOUT THOSE MULTIPLE STORMS…

For snow lovers, it looks like there’s disappointment in the forecast. Those several disturbances mentioned to move along the flat jet stream are still coming through, but not with much if any snow.  Here’s the latest–

The Saturday disturbance still looks like it will miss us to our south.

The Sunday evening disturbance looks to be less organized with a mix of rain and maybe some wintery mix.

The Wednesday disturbance currently appears to move slightly to our north, giving us mostly rain.

  • 200 mb flow
    Previous prediction of 200 mb winds

The flat jet usually doesn’t allow much if any development and shape of the jet is now anticyclonic vs cyclonic. Furthermore, it moved from a position to our south (cold for us) to a more northern position which allows warmer air to move in.