As mentioned earlier this morning, things have changed considerably with the model forecast for Saturday. The low pressure that was expected to slowly move along a sinking frontal boundary, with heavy precip over-running the front now appears to move more quickly- the precipitation moves through quickly and the low doesn’t intensify until it’s further to our south.

As a result, there’s not enough cold air in the mid levels to support snow around PHL until after the precip moves through.   Also, there won’t be enough heavy precip to cause enough dynamic cooling.

The timing has changed.  Most of the precip occurs before sunrise and ends before noon.  Most of the precip will be rain.  There may be a brief period of rain mixed with snow around daybreak, but will likely change back to all rain maybe mixed with sleet early morning before ending by noon.  There should be little to no accumulation in Philadelphia and the immediate surrounding areas.  

Anything that falls will quickly melt.

I’ll keep an eye on any further changes.

BTW, there’s a chance of rain showers/ flurries early tomorrow (Friday) morning.


The 2 AM runs of the GFS and NAM show almost no snow for Philadelphia and north.   – The precipitation develops mostly to our south.

Thermal profiles in our area are too warm for snow for much of the time, so we will get mostly rain.     There may be a brief changeover to snow before ending but accumulations look minimal at this time.

Will continue to watch this.