I’ve had some unexpected free time this morning and was able to look at the GFS and NAM models.

QPF values for PHL have reduced to 0.85 GFS and 1.00 NAM.  Higher QPF amounts west and north of Philadelphia.   Thermal profiles are a bit warm around daybreak around the city, allowing a mix in with rain, reducing snow totals in the city and south/east.

Wet snow tonight may mix with rain around daybreak.  Snow mixed with rain in the city until late morning, when it all changes to snow.  In the city and areas near I-95,  mix with rain  will reduce accusations to about 4-6 inches, mostly accumulating late morning and in the afternoon.

Just outside of the city where it should stay as snow (Valley Forge, Main Line and north and west)  10-16 inches.

The real data you can hang your hat on will be available about 9:45 PM. I’ll update a little afterwards

I took a quick look at the thermal profiles from this morning’s model run…   A bit warm in the atmosphere around daybreak, (rain mixes in) before the storm begins to deepen.   This will reduce accumulations in Philadelphia area by several inches.   8 inches looking like a good guess, still the higher amounts, 12+  north and west of the city.

We’ll need to wait until this evening for the real final totals- about 9:45 PM