Monthly Archives: February 2016

Winter Storm Outlook

Philly Winter Weather Outlook

The models have been showing a fast moving low pressure system moving to our south Thursday evening and redeveloping off the coast as it moves eastward Friday morning.  Snow would start Thursday evening  and end early Friday morning

Accumulations appear to be light at the current time from this system, but the trend has been for increasing amounts.  There is still uncertainty regarding this potential snowfall.  Stay tuned.

Tues AM: Last night’s models has a QPF of 0.14 inches water for Thursday evening into daybreak Friday morning.   That’s about 1-2 inches of snow accumulation by Friday morning.

Had this amount of QPF fallen during daylight hours, there would be even less accumulation due to solar insolation from the March sun, but because it is falling at night at the lowest diurnal temperature range, the 1, maybe 2 inches is a possibility,

The GFS continues with snow showers during the daytime Friday, but little additional accumulation from these is expected.

There is still uncertainty about the specifics with this low pressure system, which should become clarified over the next several days.  (To give a sense of the uncertainty, tonight’s expected rainfall was supposed to be heavy, but the latest models have little QPF.)

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

The cold upper level trough retreats to the north as high pressure builds in, allowing winds to shift from northwest to southwest by Sunday.

Saturday remains cold.  Some mid level clouds early, then mostly sunny, the some clouds late afternoon.  High 42.

A strong southwesterly wind brings mild temperatures and sunny skies Sunday.  It will be breezy.  High about 55.

As mentioned earlier this week, model continuity remains poor, so forecast specifics remain uncertain beyond a few days out.  One forecast aspect seems to have consistency — expect large swings in temperatures every few days. 

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

Winter Weather Outlook

The models had some trouble with today’s forecast and the general impression has been that the specifics of the coming week’s forecast details are somwhat low confidence.

That said, a deep low pressure is expected to move up the Appalachians giving us heavy rains and warm temperatures on Wednesday.  A cold front moves through Thursday and another very cold Arctic outbreak is in store for next weekend.

With the Arctic airmass in place, an Alberta clipper and another low pressure system brings another chance of snow  late next weekend into next week.