The dry GFS forecast for today doesn’t fully jive with the current radar trends. The 1 AM run of the NAM model shows some very light showers for PHL this morning. (Total precip 0.03 inches water.) Temperatures this morning are higher than forecast.
Apparently, the stalled front hasn’t move as far east and south as originally expected.
As mentioned earlier this week, the models have not been doing well with cloud cover and precip forecasts with the current weather pattern over the past several weeks.
A cold front moved through and stalled just east and south of our area. A wave of low pressure developing along the front will cause showers to develop mostly east and south of Philadelphia on Friday night and Saturday.
Philadelphia should be dry Saturday but there’s a slight chance of a scattered sprinkle. It will be mostly cloudy with November-like mid level cloudiness. Cooler with high temperature 62.
High pressure builds in for Sunday. Sunny skies and cooler temps. High 59.
The very mild weather that will be with us through Friday will come to brief end later Friday as a cold front moves through.
As in recent months, the cold front precipitation dynamics move to our north as a wave develops on the front to our south. That gives us a windy day, but low rain probability to the frontal passage late Friday.
The current dry pattern seems deeply entrenched for our area. Indeed, the upper air pattern that has been with us since August is a marked departure from the pattern of the past two years. It suggests a much milder winter and possibly a much drier winter. More about that in a upcoming post regarding my Winter Weather Outlook.
Back to this weekend…the wave of low pressure may bring cloudiness to our area on Saturday, but it appears that the rain will stoy just to our south, affecting southern NJ and DE.
For Sunday, cooler high pressure builds in for sunny and seasonably cool weather.
