theweatherguy's weblog

theweatherguy's weblog

Thoughts and Comments about Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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theweatherguy's weblog,

"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."

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Fri, 17 Oct 2008
Winter Climate Prediction
With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter.
Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle.
The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23.
Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had.
With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years.
There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information.
By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere.

posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm

[/general] permanent link
Sun, 02 Oct 2005
Updated This Site!
Well, as cool as having "writebacks" comments/questions were on the site,I've had to eliminate that functionality temporarily because older posts were filled with bot-created spam entries that simply were in poor taste.
So, to contact me, use the link on the navigational bar to the left. I'll see if I can protect that functionality in the future.
The RSS XML version of the site is now working. (If you copied an older URL from earlier last week, please update your subscription by copying the new link associated with the RSS graphic on the left.) The correct URL to subscribe to the RSS Feed is http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss
Yahoo news and my.yahoo.com allows you subscribe to RSS feeds. There are also many free RSS/XML and blog aggregators--separate programs that allow you to subscribe to news, blogs, and RSS feeds. I use Thunderbird (www.mozilla.org) for email and news/blogs/RSS subscriptions.

posted: Oct 02 2005 at 7:11 pm

[/general] permanent link
Thu, 29 Sep 2005
New RSS Feed for this Site!
Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the XML link for this site http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss to your Newsgroup or RSS reader, to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions!

posted: Sep 29 2005 at 12:12 pm

[/general] permanent link
Wed, 28 Sep 2005
Testing RSS feed!
Just a test of RSS Syndicaton

posted: Sep 28 2005 at 6:29 am

[/general] permanent link
Tue, 27 Sep 2005
New RSS Feed for this Site!
Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the link for this site to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions!

posted: Sep 27 2005 at 7:02 pm

[/general] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's weblog
		Thoughts and Comments about Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's weblog, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." About theweatherguy Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 17 Oct 2008 Winter Climate Prediction With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter. Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle. The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23. Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had. With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years. There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information. By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere. posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm [/general] permanent link Sun, 02 Oct 2005 Updated This Site! Well, as cool as having "writebacks" comments/questions were on the site,I've had to eliminate that functionality temporarily because older posts were filled with bot-created spam entries that simply were in poor taste. So, to contact me, use the link on the navigational bar to the left. I'll see if I can protect that functionality in the future. The RSS XML version of the site is now working. (If you copied an older URL from earlier last week, please update your subscription by copying the new link associated with the RSS graphic on the left.) The correct URL to subscribe to the RSS Feed is http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss Yahoo news and my.yahoo.com allows you subscribe to RSS feeds. There are also many free RSS/XML and blog aggregators--separate programs that allow you to subscribe to news, blogs, and RSS feeds. I use Thunderbird (www.mozilla.org) for email and news/blogs/RSS subscriptions. posted: Oct 02 2005 at 7:11 pm [/general] permanent link Thu, 29 Sep 2005 New RSS Feed for this Site! Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the XML link for this site http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss to your Newsgroup or RSS reader, to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions! posted: Sep 29 2005 at 12:12 pm [/general] permanent link Wed, 28 Sep 2005 Testing RSS feed! Just a test of RSS Syndicaton posted: Sep 28 2005 at 6:29 am [/general] permanent link Tue, 27 Sep 2005 New RSS Feed for this Site! Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the link for this site to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions! posted: Sep 27 2005 at 7:02 pm [/general] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.