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Thoughts and Comments about Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life
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Sat, 14 Apr 2007
Heavy Rain Update - Sat PM
The lastest NAM data just became available. The NAM cranks out almost 4 inches of rain for our area on Sunday! And it predicts a prolongation of the rain throughout the day. This QPF value for our area is not one I have seen in a long time. The better GFS model output is not yet available, but the two models have been in general agreement. This afternoon's GFS model using the NWS Bufkit software cranked out over 3 inches of rain.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with heavy rain. Precipitation will approach 4 inches of rain! High 49. Winds continue into Monday with possible snow showers Monday.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 9:28 pm
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Sunday Nor'easter Commentary- Sat AM
The news media is really hyping up this coastal storm. Quite honestly, the latest models have a more signficant storm for Long Island and Connecticut than for us, as the surface low pressure will become 'vertically stacked' with its upper low a bit further north than had been previously forecast. Thus, the storm is a bit more progressive than the original stalled version off the NJ coastline.
As a result, a dry slot will move through our area by early to mid-afternoon on Sunday, cutting off the heavy rain. Barometer buffs like myself will enjoy seeing their barometers hit a deep low point (984 millibars), but this will be just a bad rainstorm.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 8:13 am
[/weather/apr07] permanent link
Stormy Sunday- Sat AM
Latest model trends from both the NAM and GFS- the heaviest rain will occur before 8 AM Sunday with the bulk of the precipitation on Sunday exiting by 2 PM.... As much as 1.5 inches will fall in a 6 hour period before daybreak Sunday, with another half inch Sunday morning. Indirect effects of the storm - wind- will increase in the afternoon Sunday with intermittent showers. So the trend is for the heaviest rain to be before daybreak and earlier in the day on Sunday.
Sat 4/14: Sunny early, increasing clouds and mostly cloudy by mid afternoon. Chance of a shower very late in the afternoon. High 53.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with heavy rain, especially before daybreak and during the morning. Winds increase during the afternoon. Snow showers possible Sunday night.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 7:00 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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